After a sharp drop on Monday, stock indexes rebounded on Tuesday. Japan's Topix futures triggered the circuit breaker mechanism upward. The Nikkei 225 index rose by 9.7%, and the Topix index rose by 10%. The South Korean stock market closed up 3%, and once rose by more than 5% during the session. The US Nasdaq index closed up 1%, reaching 2% during the session.

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On August 6, Japanese stocks rebounded strongly on Tuesday after Monday's plunge into a bear market. The Nikkei 225 and Topix indexes rebounded nearly 10%, the biggest gain since October 2008. Hideyuki Ishiguro, chief strategist at Nomura Asset Management, said: Panic selling may be over, and today's market trend may still be a roller coaster as anxiety in global markets remains high. On August 6, South Korea's KOSPI index closed up 80.59 points, or 3.30%, at 2522.14 points. It was the largest single-day percentage gain since November 6, 2023. Lawyers for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) opposed Coinbase's subpoena requests, which sought to search for "essentially all crypto-related documents." The SEC accused Coinbase last year of selling securities related to its equity products without registration. CoinShares announced its Q2 2024 results, with revenue of £22.5 million, up 110% year-on-year from £10.7 million in Q2 2023. On August 5, ARK Invest bought about $14.81 million worth of CoinBase shares. IntoTheBlock reported that as of August 4, whales holding more than 1,000 BTC held a total of 4.79 million, increasing their holdings during the recent decline; addresses holding less than 1 BTC performed weakly, with the largest drop in holdings during the market downturn. The suspected Justin Sun address has successively withdrawn 14,884 ETH and 16,236 ETH from centralized platforms. Tide Capital said that the open interest of BTC futures contracts has dropped to $25.8 billion, a drop of more than 30%, and the funding rate has turned negative significantly, a large number of leveraged long positions have been closed, and the fastest stage of the market decline may have ended. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, released data showing that the cost basis of BTC ETF/custodial address is $65,000; the cost basis of mining companies is $45,000. Matrixport analysis report stated that the market tends to attribute the plunge of BTC to the liquidation of yen carry trades. Many financial market participants who borrowed yen to invest in high-yield assets are now reversing the direction of their positions, and BTC has become a victim asset in this process.

The Bank of Japan's unexpected rate hike, coupled with market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, has increased uncertainty in central bank policies, leading to deleveraging in the financial system. According to some traders, this is precisely the main reason for the decline in BTC prices. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said that the first wave of shocks in the financial market has passed, and now the problem of over-leveraged investors in the traditional financial sector is waiting to emerge. The second wave of shocks is expected to begin soon, and he hinted that if there is a rescue, the market may need to undergo more adjustments before Friday this week. The current breath is only temporary, and market volatility will continue. After a sharp drop on Monday, stock indexes rebounded on Tuesday. Japan's Topix index futures triggered the circuit breaker mechanism upward. The Nikkei 225 index rose by 9.7%, the Topix index rose by 10%, and the South Korean stock market closed up 3%, and once rose by more than 5% during the session. The Nasdaq index in the United States closed up 1%, reaching 2% during the session. On Monday, the U.S. spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of $168.4 million, and the trading volume of the U.S. spot BTC ETF hit a new high since March 26 this year, reaching $5.7 billion, of which BlackRock IBIT had a trading volume of $2.94 billion. The U.S. spot ETH ETF had a net inflow of $49 million. Bernstein, an investment research institution, said in a research report that if the usual response to concerns about a U.S. recession is to cut interest rates and increase monetary liquidity, it expects the price of "hard assets" such as BTC to rise. Overall, Bernstein expects the crypto market to respond to macroeconomic and election information in the third quarter. However, if the broader stock market recovers due to the Fed's response, BTC and the cryptocurrency market will follow this trend. The Bitfinex report said that the overall market direction will depend on macroeconomic factors. The recent turmoil in the Japanese stock market and the losses on Wall Street highlight the interconnectedness of global markets. The correlation between BTC and traditional financial markets is increasing. The US labor market shows clear signs of slowing down. The Federal Reserve hinted that it may turn to relax its tight monetary policy. Despite the challenges in the labor market, it still reflects the continued strength and resilience of the economy. Raoul Pal, a former executive of Goldman Sachs and founder of the macro research institution Real Vision, said that it is too early to draw conclusions. Personally, he intends to increase his holdings of cryptocurrencies and technology stocks in the next week or so. The price of the macro summer and autumn (but interrupted by Japan) is taken. The Fed's final rate cut will also bring a period of weakening of the US dollar, which will help form a macro summer/autumn. It is now in an extreme fear zone. All this will pass.

Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a recession in the United States in the next year from 10% to 25%, believing that the risk of a recession is limited, and overall it looks "good", there are no major financial imbalances, and the Federal Reserve has a lot of room to cut interest rates. If necessary, it can act quickly. The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, November and December. JPMorgan Chase predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September and November, and 25 basis points in December. Analyst Nigel Green said that the unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate is the reason for the downward pressure on stock index futures, the US dollar and US bond yields. Green called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points now, while other analysts suggested an emergency rate cut of up to 75 basis points to avoid a recession. If the Federal Reserve does not take action, there may be a far-reaching risk of a hard landing. On August 6, the market aggressively traded the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut in September exceeding 90%, and even expectations of an emergency rate cut rising to more than 50%. August 2024 and March 2020: In March 2020, the U.S. economy experienced a substantial recession, and the recession was implemented/the Federal Reserve urgently cut interest rates, and the currency market bottomed out and rebounded until the end of 2021; in August 2024, the market predicted a recession in the U.S. economy, and was waiting for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and was also "waiting for history to repeat" and resume rising. The U.S. economic cycle, the Federal Reserve monetary cycle, and the currency market cycle are often similar. The history that old leeks see repeating over and over again is very annoying. The first half of the cyclical history has been very difficult, and I hope that the second half of the cyclical history will remain similar (bottoming out and rebounding after the negative impact). #加密市场反弹 #美联储何时降息？ #JumpTrading转移资产