The interest rate hike cycle is a fierce game period for the dealers to redistribute interests. From another perspective, why didn't the Fed cut interest rates in July?

Instead, it was put on September, leaving August empty. Isn't this just to leave a time difference and facilitate the dealers to reshuffle? It is hard to say that Powell and other directors did not see the unemployment rate data released on August 2 in advance.

They so accurately changed the basis for decision-making to not only look at inflation but also employment at the interest rate meeting held on the last two days of July. Powell even said bluntly that if employment is not good, then interest rate cuts will be started.

In front of the visible hand, the market is slow to react. When the market realized that the economic recession was imminent at the weekend, the Federal Reserve had already closed the meeting and slipped away. Want to find it to save the market immediately, no way! Buffett cleverly cooperated and added fuel to the fire, releasing news of a large reduction in US stocks, which effectively promoted the overall collapse of the market.

Who will be the winner in this round of tightening cycle of less than 3 years? The answer is actually very obvious. Look at the past two years. Whoever expands credit against the trend is the winner. Yes, it's still these two brothers: the Eagle Sauce that sells US bonds, and the Rabbit that cuts interest rates against the trend.

Then who is the loser? When the easing cycle comes, whoever has less money in his pocket is the loser. The Federal Reserve will be back for another meeting in late September. The bosses have discussed the instructions, the thugs have cleared the battlefield, and Powell can open the door and read the script as planned, announcing the interest rate cut that the market has been thinking about!