The cryptocurrency market has experienced a sharp drop, among which the leverage liquidation in ETH is particularly tragic, followed by BTC. Data shows that more than 200,000 people have been liquidated, and the amount of liquidation is as high as more than 800 million US dollars. In fact, for old leeks, they are already accustomed to such fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market. In a round of bull and bear, similar situations will always occur several times, which is not a black swan event.
This decline is mainly driven by BTC's own internal factors (such as Mt.Gox liquidation) driven by low-level reshuffles, rather than external factors (such as the Fed's interest rate cuts and the US economic recession) driven by trend reversals. Mentougou's overall compensation is divided into 1/3 must-sell, 1/3 paper hands, and 1/3 diamond hands.
After taking over the 1/3 that must be thrown, the market tends to find opportunities to wash out 1/3 of the paper hands, and then open the market, which will be easier. This is very consistent with the "maximum loss principle" I talked about before: the market always moves in the direction of making as many people as possible suffer as much loss as possible.
At the beginning of 2024, it broke through the previous round of "previous high" of 69,000 dollars. So, obviously, either the bull market starts and ends early, or it is desperate to clean up, blow up all the positions that should be blown up, let those who are desperate to cut their losses cut their losses and leave the market, and let those who have received unexpected windfalls hand over their chips at a low position, until the market is clean, and then it is good to plan for the future market. According to the above semi-quantitative analysis, if you sell 1/3 and retrace from 68k to 60k, then cut another 1/3 and retrace to 52k. It is actually reasonable and not surprising at all. All those who are afraid of liquidating and leaving the market, and those who are forced to leave the market because of leverage explosion and loss, can only say that it is their fate.
