To predict the upcoming market trend, let's look at some of the current situation:
1. Middle east war, << This is blamed for market dump but lmao no it isn't. People always find something to blame when they bought the bubble and these guys have been fighting for more than a decade.
It's nothing new, but it's an easy narrative to sell from the media. Media is also a business, they need views. You won't be popular if you say it's the investor's fault for making some shit investments.
Rather, say it's not their fault, someone else has to take responsibility, you are a victim, etc... anyways, moving on
2. FED Rate cuts: There has been an emergency meeting after market crash, yes. But did they say anything about a rate cut officially? No. As always, it's the ones who don't get to decide the rate cuts that are making it like a fact. Example is again, most of media, articles.
Powell has explicitly stated, FED does not get swinged by politics, and interest rates will remain until 2% inflation. But then he said they won't wait until 2%, but a lot of people thought this means an early rate cut.
Here's the thing, he never said "not waiting" is a rate cut. It could be a rate hike too. If inflation is not quickly adjusted, then even higher rates in a short time frame would be more ideal than dragging this out. Also, he said the FED's job isn't to make the market feel comfortable. It basically means the FED's policy doesn't care about investor's losses, inflation and its consequences are far more important than retail gambling on the market.
And after all. the market pumped even with high interest rate for years, and dumped without any changes to rates. Usually the market can't do so well in these rates, but it did. and it kept going. That's a bubble. There is no obligation from anyone to save investors from their losses from contributing to this bubble.
Even if rates are actually cut, there won't be substantial changes. Everyone is in debt, deliquency rates are peaking, these debts have to be paid before taking any more.
