Review yesterday's experience

How can I describe yesterday's market situation? It was just that kind of "inexplicable" visual sense. After all, after experiencing two days of decline over the weekend, many people felt that the "panic" might have been released.

Who knew that what we were waiting for was actually a big wave!!!

When the Japanese stock market opened, it plummeted. The record drop in the Nikkei directly led to the collapse of global stock markets, of course, except for the "big cancer stocks".

Crypto also fell shortly after the Nikkei crash.

The market started to fall at 8:30 in the morning, which was perfectly in the Asian time zone. People in Europe and the United States were still asleep when they were attacked, and they had no time to cover their positions.

Of course they are also happy. After all, when they wake up, it is the lowest point. They can buy whatever they want and sell it today.

And what was the reason for the decline yesterday?

This is actually very easy to understand. The reason is definitely caused by the "Japanese stock market crash", and the reason for the "Japanese stock market crash" is because the "Bank of Japan chose to raise interest rates."

Then everyone discovered that yesterday the media in the cryptocurrency circle began to popularize the story of "Japan's central bank raising interest rates" and told us various stories about "yen arbitrage".

I learned a bunch of information that I don’t know whether it’s useful or not.

And because of this series of circumstances, the "dominoes" were directly pushed down.

What is the cause of the panic?

The U.S. stock market had a circuit breaker before the market opened yesterday. Many people were worried. Buffett had witnessed four circuit breakers in his nearly 100 years of life, and we are about to witness the fourth time in our 10 years of life. In addition, the situation in the Middle East led by Israel does not seem optimistic.

Fortunately, after the U.S. stock market opened yesterday, it made a direct V-reversal. Technology stocks were even more powerful, and most of them held up.

As for the situation in the Middle East, it is not out of the ordinary. After all, it is just like children playing house and everyone is used to it.

Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway recently sold off its shares, adding to the panic in the market. (This was said to have happened several months ago, but it was not widely publicized until yesterday.)

So in the end it didn't reach the "scary" step. Of course, the biggest reason was that Europeans and Americans got up and started to buy at the bottom. Their timing was lucky, as the price had almost fallen when they started, so they didn't have to buy halfway up the mountain.

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Of course, for crypto, in addition to the above, yesterday’s panic was also caused by various “on-chain operations”.

Whether it is Jump Capital's frequent recharges to exchanges, or the net outflows of BTC ETF and ETH ETF, or Grayscale's continuous selling of goods, or another subsidiary of Grayscale's continuous selling of coins after bankruptcy and reorganization, or the US government's continuous testing of transfers, etc., all of these have made the market a little "surprised".

Global panic

After the Nikkei plummeted -12.4% and started the circuit breaker process, the South Korean stock market also started the circuit breaker process, the Taiwan stock market also went straight to the limit down, and so on.

The Japanese yen appreciated directly, the US dollar depreciated, the RMB appreciated, and gold prices skyrocketed.

In particular, the market value of the seven sisters of US technology stocks evaporated by more than 1.66 trillion US dollars in one week.

Then the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision to maintain the original interest rate, coupled with the non-farm data, triggered a new “knowledge point”, the Sam’s Rule, which began to arouse everyone’s scientific knowledge about the US economic recession.

You should know that yesterday in various groups I saw people comparing it with 1929, some comparing it with 2002, some comparing it with 2008, and of course some comparing it with 2020.

In short, at least everyone around me was in panic yesterday. A lot of people started asking what to do. Cash is king, sell some things first, keep some cash first, etc. It made people unconsciously wonder what to do?

How do you view the market situation?

Since the ETF was approved, this crypto has become a technology stock in the U.S. stock market, at least at the BTC level. So at least until there is any fundamental change, it will still follow the U.S. stock market. After all, Trump has not yet taken office, and the U.S. government has been selling.

Therefore, we have to return to the market itself, that is, now that BTC has an ETF, does it have a "bottom line"? Will there no longer be the same "liquidity" withdrawal as before, with no buying at all?

There will not be an extreme situation like -50% in one day.

The specific operation is actually very simple:

1. Short position, wait until everything is settled, and then start buying on the right side;

2. Buy more when the price drops, buy less when the price drops slightly, buy more when the price drops sharply, and buy on the left side;

3. Short selling, bearish on the global financial market, the CRYPTO market will certainly not be immune;

My own operation is even simpler. I buy without thinking. I buy more when the price drops sharply and buy less when the price drops slightly. Then I use leverage reasonably. I don’t open 5-10x leverage without thinking. Yesterday, a little brother opened 4x eth and was directly taken away 😂.

After all, brothers, you dare to buy 70,000 BTC, but you are trembling with fear at 50,000 BTC. Isn’t this funny?

[Now only Junyang can receive a potential coin at least 10 times, valid forever]

What target should I choose for bottom fishing?

This is the issue that everyone is concerned about. To bottom fish, you must have some good underlying assets. Otherwise, if you buy the ones that never rebound at all, and only fall but not rise, it is better not to bottom fish and go short, right?

To put it bluntly, if you want to buy at the bottom, you should buy the strong ones, the ones that have been rising before, or the ones that haven't fallen much. It's like you should pick the weak ones in a fight and you should look for the strong one when you look for a big brother.

1. Value mainstream coins: The so-called value here is not the same as the vc coin value coins mentioned by most people. Here it refers to $BTC $SOL $ETH. Of course, I choose $BTC $SOL, and I only use $ETH when I am fighting against the earth dog;

2.MEMECOIN; here refers to the strong memes similar to those in the exchange, such as PEPE, BONK, WIF, etc.;

3. The meme you are used to on the chain; the one you have been operating recently on the chain, $BANANA $OLM $WHY

These; (These are all my own habits, many people have their own BAG)

What is the most correct way to buy at the bottom?

The action of bottom fishing should be quick and the posture should be handsome. Of course, more importantly, you must make sure that you leave room for yourself, because can you really be sure whether you have bottom fished at the bottom or halfway up the mountain?

After all, the so-called predictions are all misleading. No one knows how low the stock will fall. They are just rough guesses.

Buying the bottom in batches is a good option. At least it can ensure that when the price falls, you still have enough money to support your ability to continue buying the bottom.

Should I go all in or leave some reserve?

This is a good question. I think unless you are 100% sure that it has reached the bottom, and you leave enough money for normal living expenses and go all in for the rest, I can accept it. After all, if you go all in, you don’t care about life or death.

But the key issue is that everything is speculation, so don’t be so "decisive". After all, life is not a game where you can go in reverse.

[Now only Junyang can receive a potential coin at least 10 times, valid forever]