Crypto billionaire and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has issued a bold prediction, warning of a second market crash following the recent dip. Hayes believes the current market recovery is temporary and that volatility will persist in both stock and crypto markets.
**Market Recovery and Warning**
Global markets are showing signs of recovery. Japanโs Nikkei index has rebounded by 10% after a 12% drop, and both global crypto and US stock futures are on the rise. However, Hayes cautions that this recovery is the first wave, with more turbulence ahead. He points to over-leveraged investors in traditional markets as a looming issue that could trigger a second correction.
If the US Federal Reserve intervenes with a bailout, markets might face further challenges by Friday. Hayes emphasizes that the current calm is temporary, with ongoing volatility expected due to tensions in the Middle East.
**Cathie Woodโs Market Insights**
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood notes that the VIX (Equity Volatility Index) has spiked to 65, the fourth-highest level in 40 years. She compares this to historic crashes like Black Monday in 1987, the Lehman collapse in 2008, and the COVID crash in 2020. She mentions that investors, facing margin calls, are unwinding yen carry trades due to disappointing US economic data and unexpected interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
Wood argues that the 10-year Treasury bond yield should be around 2%, rather than its current 3.8% or last Octoberโs 5%, based on the metals-to-gold ratio. The US dollar index (DXY) falling below 103 has encouraged Bitcoin buying, but market uncertainty remains high.
**US Treasury Actions and Bitcoin Analysis**
The U.S. Treasury Department plans to start a $30 billion monthly Treasury buyback, which could aid further crypto market recovery. Bitcoinโs price has rebounded above $55,800, but analysts suggest the Bitcoin crash might continue. If Bitcoin falls below the $50,000 psychological level again, it could revisit the $45,156 key support level.
