Two years is a period that is neither too long nor too short. If it is too long, it will be meaningless. If you say you can make 1 million yuan in 10 years, many people will think it is meaningless, especially in the cryptocurrency circle. With a capital of 20,000 yuan, the first pot of gold is 500,000-1 million yuan. This is an achievable goal, and you don’t need to learn any K-line, just know how to buy and sell.
The bottom of the last bear market was 312, the price of Bitcoin was 3800, and Ethereum was 88. The peak of the bull market was 69000, and Ethereum was 4800. Ethereum has increased more than 50 times.
Let’s not talk about what 2*50 equals for now. It’s not easy to get a good deal from the beginning to the end, so it’s more reliable to wait patiently for opportunities than to buy and sell based on feelings. The first point is that it’s more reliable to wait patiently for opportunities than to buy and sell based on feelings. Recently, Ethereum 1800 has almost doubled from the low point. There is also a chance to take advantage of the rebound in the middle. Don’t take the long-term, run away when you make money. Now it’s the Monkey Market 9. Only by protecting the principal can you have a chance to catch the next wave of dividends.
Investment must be divided into stages. Don’t rush in. It is crucial to see the situation clearly. For example, in the early stage of a bull market, Bitcoin and Ethereum will definitely lead the market upward, and the mainstream will make up for the rise. In the later stage, only the altcoins will explode, and then enter the next cycle.
You can give priority to holding and investing in Bitcoin and Ethereum, and then switch to altcoins in the mid-term. This way you can eat both the head and body of the fish, and then go short-term and respond flexibly in the later stage.
After many newcomers come into contact with contracts, their principal may double or triple within a week, and they think they are the chosen ones and begin to look forward to a better life in the future. Whether they are the chosen ones or not, the market will give the answer later. If you think you are the chosen one, with a principal of 10,000, you can earn 1 million as long as you have enough time. If you eventually blow up your account, don't be discouraged, just position yourself as an ordinary person, learn slowly, and you will naturally earn money as your cognition improves!
This is the trend and rhythm of the next bull cycle in the cryptocurrency market. If you grasp this, there will be basically no problem. The only thing left is the belief in the cryptocurrency market!
1. Now we need to plan for the crazy bull market in the last half of 2024:
(1) In the second half of 2024: The Fed cuts interest rates and buys BTC at the bottom, and holds on to the high of $74,000 before 2024. View: Only when BTC rises violently, it will be a real bull market. If it continues to suck blood from altcoins, including ETH, it will also be in trouble. BTC will continue to be strong.
(2) When BTC price rises to 73,000U~80,000U, we will decisively liquidate BTC in batches, and go all in to buy Audi ORDI and a series of inscribed local coins of ETH+BRC20. For other sectors, we can refer to the leading currencies A1, Web3, L2, blockchain games, Metaverse 9, NFT, social networking, RWA, new old blockchain, staking, MEME, and select high-quality coins for layout.
(3) The second half of 2025: Decisively and accurately escape the top. Short BTC at a high level without thinking, low-multiple long-term is also OK, or do not do it and directly withdraw the funds to go traveling. View: At that time, the macro dollar will start to raise interest rates, tighten quantitative easing policies, the dollar will be strong, and risky assets such as BTC will begin to depreciate. History is so similar, and the truth has not changed for thousands of years
2. The second half of 2026: Take profits on ultra-long-term short positions. Ambush at the bottom of the stage: BTC, ETH, high-quality new projects, and layout of the bull market (oversold rebound in the bear market).
3. Layout of a new round of violent bull market in 2030. Newbies in the bull market can easily earn 1 million by doing the following 6 things
1. Find the leading coins in the sector and hold them all the time. Don’t change positions frequently, and don’t compare with others. You always think that the coins you have are rising slowly, so you chase the coins that are skyrocketing. In the end, you are trapped, but the original coins start to rise.
2. The purpose of inserting a pin is to clear long positions. For short leveraged contracts, do not panic if the spot price falls, you can add positions, especially for rapid ups and downs of the pin.
3. Buy more bulldozer arc bottom coins and resistant coins. If Bitcoin stands firm, only a slow rise is the healthiest rise. Although a sharp rise can make people very happy, it will also fall quickly. In the currency circle, you have to fight for endurance and time. Gatling guns have enough firepower but short time.
4. BTC market capitalization accounts for more than 52%. Bitcoin can be appropriately exchanged for high-quality potential coins. Altcoins will explode. Whether they can enter A7-A9 in the second half depends on the performance of altcoins.
5. If you want to increase your assets by more than 20 times, you must buy (new issues, new highs, hot sectors, active trading volume, and coins with strong fundamentals). The probability of relying on some old mainstream is very low. The market will always speculate on new things instead of old ones.
6. A correction of more than 20 points in Bitcoin is the best opportunity for long-term investment in potential coins.
No matter how others criticize, as long as you identify this industry and are optimistic about this career, you have already won half the battle! I am a senior practical player in Congbitcoin. I hope that every investor who knows Congbit can learn technical analysis, Trend judgment, and teach you to form your own investment system and trading system, so that you will no longer be cut off by dog dealers...
I would like to share with you my trading experience that I have summarized after more than ten years in the cryptocurrency circle and three rounds of bull market. It is worth in-depth study and collection (suitable for everyone)
When I first started learning technical analysis, in addition to understanding the basic K-bar, I began to explore the moving average.
Although the concept of moving average is simple, there are many techniques that can be applied. It is a very basic and important technique in stock market technical analysis.
Next, we will explore what the moving average is, how to look at it, and its common applications. I hope you will have a basic understanding of the moving average.
What is Moving Average (MA)?
Moving Average (MA) is an indicator commonly used in technical analysis, which is composed of the average closing price over the past period of time.
For example: 5MA means a line connected by the average closing prices of the past five days. The calculation method is the sum of the closing prices of the past five days: 5 (number of days). The smaller the number in front of MA, the shorter the period of the moving average.
The moving average itself is composed of price facts, but how to interpret it is affected by human factors. For example, some people think that the moving average represents the average holding cost of entering the market during this period.
In my experience, moving averages with shorter periods can show price trends earlier, but because the periods are too short, they are also very sensitive to price changes, so their accuracy is lower than that of moving averages with longer periods.
Relatively speaking, the long-term moving average is not as sensitive to prices as the short-term moving average. The trend may have arrived for some time before the long-term moving average reflects it, but it is not as sensitive to price fluctuations, so its trend is relatively gentle and its accuracy is higher.
By using the relative relationship between short-term, medium-term and long-term moving averages, we can also try to predict price trends and further analyze price trends.
For example, the often heard golden cross, death cross, standing above the moving average, breaking the moving average, etc., are the extended concepts of the moving average.
However, it is easy to miscalculate if you only use the moving average to predict the market, so it is usually analyzed with indicators such as trading volume.
How to read the moving average?
Instead of calculating the average closing prices one by one and then connecting them into a line, we can use powerful market viewing tools to see the moving averages of various periods on the price chart 9 with just a few clicks of our fingers.
Common application skills of moving average
The moving average alone cannot accurately predict price trends. It needs to be combined with personal experience and other indicators to improve accuracy!
Above the moving average, below the moving average
Standing above the moving average, as the name suggests, means that the closing price of the K-bar is above the moving average. At this time, some investors will be bullish and believe that the overall trend in the future will be upward.
On the contrary, if the K-bar is below the moving average, it is called breaking the moving average. At this time, some investors will think that the overall market trend will fall, so some people will regard the quarterly line (60MA) as a life-saving line.
The reason why the price is relative to the moving average is to judge the rise and fall, because the moving average is often used as a rough purchase cost. For example, the 5MA is often used as the average holding cost of investors in the past 5 days.
Therefore, when the price stands above the moving average, it means that investors have made money on average over the past period of time. At this time, many people will be willing to increase their purchases, pushing the price further up.
On the contrary, when the price falls below the moving average, it means that investors have lost money on average over the past period of time. At this time, many people may sell at a loss, further causing the price to fall.
Golden Cross, Death Cross
These two crossovers are often used to predict subsequent price movements.
The golden cross refers to the short-term moving average breaking through the long-term moving average upward, which means that the short-term market is stronger than the long-term market, and may mean future price increases. Because the word "gold" is as pleasing as bullish, it is also called the golden cross.
On the contrary, the death cross means that the short-term moving average falls below the long-term moving average, which is often a sell signal. Because the name sounds scary, using this method to present it can deepen the impression and quickly understand the meaning.
As for what kind of moving average is called a short cycle and what is called a long cycle?
For stocks, the short cycle refers to 5MA (weekly line) and 10MA (biweekly line), the medium and long term refers to 20MA (monthly line) and 60MA (quarterly line), and the long cycle refers to 120MA (semi-annual line) and 240MA (annual line).
However, this is just a commonly used criterion for judging cycles. In fact, it still depends on which moving averages you are used to using and how to compare the length of cycles.
Moving average long and short arrangement
The bullish arrangement of moving averages refers to the arrangement of short-term moving averages to long-term moving averages from top to bottom and moving toward the upper right. This means that the price trend has been steadily rising in the past, and it often attracts subsequent buyers to enter the market, resulting in a sharp rise in subsequent prices.
On the contrary, the short-term moving average is arranged from the short-term moving average to the long-term moving average from bottom to top and develops towards the lower right corner, which means that the price has been falling steadily. Since the bears often clear their profits at this time, the decline is often accelerated.
However, when the moving average has shown a perfect long and short arrangement, it usually means that the price has been rising or falling for a while. Therefore, if you enter and exit the market after seeing this, you may not be able to get a big price difference.
Moving average entanglement
Moving average entanglement refers to multiple moving averages mixed together and arranged irregularly like a twist. It usually means that the bulls and bears are still in a tug of war, and this is also a period of chip washing and consolidation.
The longer the consolidation period, the drier and more concentrated the chips are, and the greater the ups and downs in the future may be.
If the price breaks through the moving average upward after consolidation, it means that the bulls win, and the moving average will often show a bullish arrangement. On the contrary, if the price breaks through the moving average downward, it means that the bears win, and the market will show a bearish arrangement in the future.
However, if you want to confirm whether the consolidation is really over, you can't just look at the breakthrough or breakout, but also need to cooperate with other indicators such as trading volume to avoid false breakthroughs and false breakouts.
Moving average deduction
The purpose of moving average offset is to try to predict price trends in advance, that is, the future direction of the moving average.
If you want to understand the future direction of the moving average, you must first understand the relationship between the offset value and the new closing price.
Moving average summary
Finally, let me summarize the key points of the moving average as follows:
It is composed of the average closing price over a period of time and is a common technical analysis indicator.
According to different time lengths, it can be used for short-term, medium-term and long-term buying and selling judgments. The shorter the moving average, the more sensitive it is to prices. Although it can respond to market conditions immediately, it is prone to distortion. The relative relationship between the moving average and the closing price, and between the moving average and the moving average, can be used to judge the long and short trends. It is easy to make mistakes to judge the long and short by using the moving average alone, and it is necessary to use it in combination with other indicators based on personal experience.
I believe that many friends in the cryptocurrency circle have heard this before. If you want to make money in the cryptocurrency market for a long time, you must form your own trading strategy. So what does a complete cryptocurrency trading strategy include?
1. Currency: Determine the type of cryptocurrency you want to trade. For example, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), etc.
2. Position: Decide how many positions you want to hold. This depends on your money management strategy and risk tolerance.
3. Direction: Determine whether to go long (buy) or short (sell). This needs to be determined based on market trends and technical analysis.
4. Entry point: Determine at what point to enter the transaction. This can be determined based on technical indicators, support and resistance levels, etc.
5. Stop loss: Set a point to exit a losing trade to control risk. Usually a stop loss is set below the entry point.
6. Take Profit: Set a point to exit a profitable trade to ensure profit. Usually a take profit point is set at the target price.
7. Countermeasures: Develop strategies to deal with unexpected situations. For example, countermeasures when there is major news or fluctuations in the market.
8. Post-trading: operations after the transaction is completed. For example, record transaction logs, summarize lessons learned, adjust strategies, etc.
After formulating the strategy, the next thing you need to do is to execute it, then wait patiently and strictly abide by the trading discipline. Quietly wait for the market to develop towards your expected goal. Over time, there are only two results:
If you lose: sum up your experience, accumulate lessons, and become more courageous after setbacks. Losses are normal transaction costs and are very normal.
Profit: Take the money and put it in the bag. You can add more positions or adjust the stop loss to gain more profits. A transaction process is now complete.
In the cryptocurrency world, a true master is not necessarily one with great skills. I have always strictly followed trading discipline. Plan your trades, trade your plans!
Why is “trading discipline” the most important?
Because "trading discipline" is the basic guarantee for survival in the market. For traders, "trading discipline" is like the brakes of a car, the parachute of a pilot, and the lifeboat of a ship. It can help you control risks and save your life at critical moments.
For traders, "trading discipline" is still a real regulator, enabling you to strictly implement your trading plans and not be confused by the dazzling "daytime noise" in the market and trade emotionally.
There are many ways to make money, but the lessons learned are always the same.
01: Amount of funds used: Divide your funds into 10 parts, and the risk you take on each transaction shall not exceed 1/10 of the principal.
The advantage here is that for newcomers, it is a good cost to practice trading, and there is no need to worry about the fluctuations in your heart along with the price fluctuations. I suggest that newcomers can divide the funds into 20 parts, and each loss should not exceed 1/20 of the principal.
The market changes every day, so keep the bullets so that you can load them on time.
02: Place a stop loss order: Set a stop loss when placing an order to protect your transaction.
Before placing an order, consider the risk first. If this order is wrong, where should I stop loss? If I open a position here, where should I stop loss?
Among the traders I know who have more than ten years of trading experience, there is no trader who opens a position without setting a stop loss. If you want to learn how to fight and box, you must first learn to be beaten.
It is not terrible to be wrong, it is the necessary transaction cost for you to trade. What is terrible is not to set a stop loss, and the loss from one wrong order is not enough to cover the profit from ten orders. Then the confidence built up by the previous profitable orders will collapse instantly, and you will start to doubt yourself and question yourself.
Another aspect is that if you want to do your job well, you must first sharpen your tools. As a professional trader, you must do a good job of basic work, just like a killer. When you are ready to open a position (hunt a target), you will do a lot of preparation in advance, such as the habits of the target person, what time of day he will pass by which street, what is his daily schedule, what is the most repetitive thing every day, so as to formulate a detailed hunting plan. Then how should I disguise myself? Where should I shoot? Which route should I retreat after shooting? How much time do I have to retreat?
So, this is something you have to consider. You must have no sympathy with the market. Either you hunt others or you become someone else's prey, so you must be responsible for your own capital.
03: Don’t over-trade, which will violate your fund management principles and cause capital loss.
It is better to leave it to quantitative robots or grids, which are more rational and mechanized than humans.
04: Don’t let floating profits turn into losses. Once there are more than three points of floating profits, set a protective stop loss near the opening price, and never lose the principal.
In the cryptocurrency world, it is easy to increase by more than three points, especially for small cottages. At this time, you can slightly enlarge your stop-profit position and adopt a mobile stop-profit method. By the way, you can do a protective stop-loss, especially in a market with high potential. It is necessary to stop profit frequently. Only in this way can you protect your profits from being taken away.
Normal people can’t stand the floating profit. They are so happy and start thinking about what to do with the profit money and what to buy. But before long, the floating profit turns into floating loss. It’s like going from heaven to hell. People with weak mental strength can’t stand it. Emotions are easily affected, which will affect your decision-making and judgment ability, induce you to make some stupid decisions, and when you sober up, you find that the account funds are basically clear, and you regret it.
05: Don't fight the trend. If you are not sure which way the trend is, don't trade.
You are not a god, you are not the invisible hand that manipulates the market, and you are not even a big operator, so be honest, give up the fantasy that you are the son of destiny, follow the trend, and don't be a dragon-killer. If you can't judge where the trend is going, then stop, relax, and spend time with your family and friends. Don't gamble or guess, there are many opportunities, so don't rush.
06: If in doubt, leave and wait
If you can't see clearly which way to go, then don't force it. The market is not yours and no one will sympathize with you.
07: Only trade active projects and stay away from targets with poor liquidity.
Why would you touch a currency with a daily trading volume of only a few M? Why not trade something with good liquidity?
08: Diversify your risk and trade multiple stocks instead of putting all your eggs in one basket.
Livermore, the founder of the industry, was a big trader. He also went bankrupt several times because of his desperate bets. Do you want to learn from him? Will your mentality be knocked down if you go bankrupt once? Do you have the trading skills and market insight of the founder? Do you still have the capital to continue to bet everything? If not, then please don’t dream. But in the cryptocurrency world, it is not like stocks. It is recommended not to hold some garbage altcoins. Just invest in BTC and ETH.
09: Don’t just use limit orders. Sometimes you need to be flexible and enter the market at the market price.
Sometimes when a major resistance is broken or a major support is fallen, the market will accelerate. If you place a rigid limit order, you may not be able to enter the market and need to respond flexibly.
10: Do not open an order without sufficient reason. Use a moving stop profit to protect profits.
I spent 800 on food today. I spent 2K on a technician today, I spent 20,000 on a business trip today, I spent 80,000 on a watch today, and I spent 500,000 on a car today. These are not reasons for you to open a position. If you open a position with these reasons, believe me, quit this circle as soon as possible, otherwise you will be penniless.
11: Accumulate surplus. If the transaction goes well, you can transfer part of the profit to a reserve account for emergency use.
Trading is work, not life, so withdraw some profits in time to prepare for your emergency needs in life. This will give you the opportunity to make mistakes without having to beg others for help.
12: Don’t buy stocks just for the dividends.
Never buy a coin just because of airdrop/staking.
13: Never spread the cost. This is the biggest mistake a trader can make. (Spread the cost: buy at a low price and keep adding)
The ICP of 500, when it drops to 100, you think it is very cheap, so you increase your position. When it drops to 50, you think it is even cheaper, so you increase your position again. When it drops to 20, you think it is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, so you go all in. Now, you can only cry.
If you are wrong, admit it; if you are beaten, stand at attention.
14: Don't enter the market because of impatience, and don't leave the market because of lack of patience.
You must be like a cheetah, act at the right moment, waiting is your weapon, and patience is your claws.
15: Don’t make small profits and big losses
Just like playing Baccarat, today I went up and won 500 yuan with 100 or 200 chips, I was satisfied and retreated. The next day I won 500 again, I retreated again, overjoyed. Wait until the third day, it was not so smooth, I went up and lost 500, unwilling to give up, continue to gamble, I want to make back the money, bet 500, wrong, lost 1000, the profit of the previous two days was gone, then unwilling to give up, continue to gamble, 500 chips or 1000 chips randomly thrown up, and ended up losing 10000. This is a typical win wins eggs, lose chickens.
Every time you open an order, you take risks and make a small profit, even before your take-profit level or your protective stop-loss level, and you leave the market, feeling happy. If you lose, you will fight to the death, even until your account is liquidated. Then you are not suitable for investment trading, let alone gambling. Casinos like people like you, because you will not be so lucky every day, winning a little bit every day, a few hundred yuan, but when you are unlucky, you will get excited when you lose, and dare to place heavy bets, and lose tens of thousands of yuan when you lose. This is the leek, the leek that the dealer likes the most.
16: Once the stop loss is set, it cannot be cancelled at will.
Stop loss is something you have thought about before opening an order. Don't cancel your stop loss at will unless something serious happens.
17: Be willing to go long and be willing to go short, and make your trades consistent with the trend. This is the way to make money.
You should be as willing to go short as you are to go long. Not leaning towards either side is a necessary psychological quality for traders.
Neutral and objective judgment.
18: Don’t buy just because the price is low, and don’t sell just because the price looks too high.
The low will get lower, and the high may continue to be higher. These are not reasons for you to go long or short.
19: Don’t hedge if your position is wrong. If you are long on a stock and it starts to fall, don’t open a short position to hedge. You should stop loss and exit the market, and look for the next opportunity.
If you make a mistake, it’s a mistake. Take care of yourself and move on to the next one.
20: Never change your trading plan without a good enough reason. You must have a sufficient reason to make a transaction and execute it according to the established plan. Do not leave the market easily before the trend reverses.
Trust your own judgment. If you are wrong, it is wrong. Learn from the lesson. The most important thing is to remember it.
21: Don’t increase your position just because you make money.
Making money within a period of time does not mean that your skills are good, it may be that you are lucky, so give yourself more time. You should make profits for a long period of time before thinking about increasing your positions. Otherwise, the money you earned by luck will most likely be lost again because of your excessive self-confidence.
This is my practical experience and technical summary in the process of cryptocurrency trading, from tens of thousands to tens of millions. Although these experiences may not be suitable for everyone, I hope everyone can understand and apply them in combination with their own practice. As a trader, the most terrible thing is not the technical defects, but the lack of cognition, which makes it easy to fall into trading traps without realizing it!
