On August 5, the Japanese stock market suffered a huge disaster, with an average daily price of 225, a single-day drop of 12.4%, and the Korean stock market was also dragged down. The entire crypto sector has no independent market trend and has been falling all the way. If nothing unexpected happens, the US stock market will also be bloody today.
The reason behind this is called carry trade, which is actually a group of self-righteous guys who want to make a lot of money in the safest way without paying the principal. Japan's economy has been in recession for 30 years, and the interest rate has been negative for a long time. But during the same period, the US monetary policy was loose, and the US stock market looked stable. International capital is those financial institutions on Wall Street, which borrow money from Japanese banks at zero interest, part of which is used to buy Japanese stocks, and most of which is converted into US dollars to buy stocks and US bonds in the United States. This process is basically one-way, and a large amount of Japanese yen is converted into US dollars, and the US dollar has been appreciating against the Japanese yen. The funds invested in US stocks make money in the stock market and the appreciation of the US dollar, and you can make a lot of money without paying the principal. The key is that no one can tell the scale of funds in this carry trade, but it is super large anyway. There are few Americans, and the Japanese are miserable. The Bank of Japan has been using negative interest rates for many years, and the economy has been drained. The US-Japan trade deficit is high. Using Japanese yen to buy US bonds can get the interest rate difference without risk, and the borrowed Japanese yen stays in Japan, causing Japan's inflation to be above 2% for two years. If this continues, the Japanese yen will become worthless paper, and foreign exchange reserves will also be finished. To put it bluntly, the wealth created by the Japanese people was slowly drained away by Wall Street through interest rate differentials and exchange rates. The Bank of Japan has been cautious and dared not raise interest rates casually. It tried to intervene in foreign exchange many times, but was suppressed by the US government and Wall Street. Alas, a dog's life is also a life. The Bank of Japan finally couldn't help it and raised 15 BP, even if the amplitude was small. As a result, the yen appreciated by 1.85% against the US dollar. Wall Street institutions engaged in carry trades were miserable. With assets in the United States, they had to pay higher yen interest and exchange rate losses. In order to reduce risks, they had to sell part of it. It happened that at this time, the US unemployment rate rose on Friday, and the market was worried about the US economic recession. In addition, the risks in the Middle East could increase at any time. The selling volume suddenly increased, and the US stock market fell sharply on Friday, and the real risk was exposed. Because the US stock market fell, the profits from the previous carry trade were gone. In order to protect the principal, the US stock market had to be sold, but the scale was too large, so it could only be sold in one or two days. Those who sold first could survive, and those who sold later would die, forming a stampede. It was like a super-large and super-sweet cotton candy floating in the sky. The most typical example is Mr. Buffett. At the beginning of this year, he used Japanese yen to buy stocks in Japan's five major commercial markets, making profits on stocks, bonds and foreign exchange. It was simply a magical operation.As a result, the car overturned today, and both the US and Japanese stocks were pushed into the meat grinder. This happened at a time when the game between the two great powers of China and the United States was in full swing. Jin Yong had a similar scene in "The Demi-Gods and Semi-Devils". Ding Chunqiu grabbed a group of disciples with his left hand, and competed with Qiao Feng in internal strength with his right hand. The two masters had smoke coming out of their heads. Ding Chunqiu's disciple You Tanzhi cried and said, "Master, I'm almost dying, let me go!" Wall Street, oh no, Ding Chunqiu said, "You have to bear it, it doesn't matter if you die, you have to work for me all your life!" You Tanzhi didn't expect it to be so miserable. In order to protect himself, he took out a knife and used his last strength to grab Ding Chunqiu's butt. Ding Chunqiu was beaten from front to back and was seriously injured. He looked back and gritted his teeth and blurted out three words: "Finished!"
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