1. The hype about the US recession and the escalating unrest in the Middle East have combined to create a bearish global financial environment. Assets such as gold, crude oil, silver, and Bitcoin have been sold off indiscriminately.

The number of new non-farm jobs in the United States in July was only 114,000, far below market expectations. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since October 2021, indicating that the labor market is cooling and may foreshadow slower economic growth.

Last week's data was worse than expected. The market went from speculative expectations of interest rate cuts to speculative expectations of recession in an instant. This is how the market works. It can always find more negative factors. The data in July far exceeded market expectations. People began to worry about the risk of a US recession. Once this expectation begins, the market will ferment in advance. Although the data for July cannot be fully judged, it is clear that this speculation has begun.

2. Last week, I reminded you that the escalating tensions in the Middle East may bring about force majeure factors, leading to increased panic in the financial markets. As expected, the US Secretary of Defense ordered adjustments to the military posture and increased military deployment in the Middle East; US and Israeli officials expect Iran to launch an attack on Israel on Monday; the commander of the US Central Command arrived in the Middle East to finalize a defense plan against Iran. In addition, many countries including Britain, the United States, Sweden, and Jordan urged their citizens to evacuate Lebanon as soon as possible.

The conflict in the Middle East this time is obviously more serious than the last time. Iran and other countries are going to launch more than 2,000 rockets in retaliation. If it continues to escalate, it will inevitably lead to local war conflicts. So everyone has seen that this sentiment has spread to the financial market. The crypto market is collapsing and falling, especially the copycat

3. When the global central banks cut interest rates, the Bank of Japan chose to raise interest rates. I think the reasons for the rate hike are roughly the following three points:

Dealing with inflationary pressure: Although inflation in Japan is relatively low at present, the Bank of Japan is concerned that inflation may spiral upward in the future. A sharp increase in wages may trigger a price "spiral" similar to that experienced in the United States.

Changing market expectations: The Bank of Japan hopes to send a signal to the market that the Japanese economy has emerged from long-term deflation by raising interest rates, thus forming positive expectations. This is a strategy to actively guide market expectations, rather than passively following the US rate cut and then raising interest rates;

Dealing with the depreciation of the yen: Although not the main purpose, raising interest rates will help reduce capital outflows and ease the pressure of yen depreciation;

The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike obviously exceeded market expectations. As a result, the Japanese stock market fell sharply, and this sharp drop will obviously also affect global stock markets.

4. The only hope today is the July ISM non-manufacturing PMI released by the United States at 22:00 Beijing time. Because recession is the most concerned and sensitive topic for investors now. Economists expect it to rise from 48.8 to above the 51 boom-bust ridge. If the data exceeds or meets market expectations, the sell-off in the global market is expected to be temporarily suspended.

5. With the double BUFFs superimposed, how should ordinary investors deal with it? What I have always emphasized is to stay away from leverage. Leverage can make a person bankrupt, so don't add leverage. This is the iron rule of investment. In addition, you must always be in awe of the market. After each investment has a profit, you must know how to stop profit and then maintain a long-term partial cash flow. Only in this way can you stay alive. In the financial market, you must first save your life, and then make profits.

6. We will not conduct project analysis today, we will focus on the situation in the Middle East.

[Market Analysis] The decline of Bitcoin has obviously exceeded everyone's expectations. The superposition of multiple force majeure BUFFs has led to a direct waterfall-like decline in the market. No matter from which angle you look at it, the short-term trend of the market has been completely destroyed. Currently, the strong support near 53,000 must be re-verified. Of course, any support is vulnerable under sudden negative news.

Short-term trend destruction will not affect future trends, but such a deep decline will require a long period of adjustment and repair.

[Risk Reminder] Digital assets fluctuate greatly and are extremely risky. Please participate with caution, avoid full-position all-in, and refuse loan leverage; #加密市场急跌 #美国7月非农就业增长放缓 #美联储何时降息？ #美国政府转移BTC