PANews reported on August 5 that according to Jinshi, Adam Button, an analyst at the financial website Forexlive, said that since 1955, the inverted yield curve has maintained a good record in predicting US recessions. However, it is not the inverted curve that really indicates the coming of a recession, but when the curve returns to positive. We can think of it as a storm forecast. The inversion means the formation of the storm, and the lifting of the inversion means the landing of the storm, especially in the bull steep period dominated by the front end. We will not see a recession until the data shows a recession, but the market is definitely shrinking. In addition to the slope of the curve, the 2-year US Treasury yield has fallen by 20 basis points, nominally 170 basis points lower than the Fed funds rate, which would not happen if there were no real problems in the economy.

Earlier, the media reported that the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield fell below the 10-year Treasury yield for the first time since July 2022, ending the inversion.