Full analysis of #ARB🔥🔥🔥 as of 08/05/2024:
1. Price forecast (short term, medium term)
Short term forecast:
The ARB price is showing a strong downward movement, being in a downward channel. A break below the $0.44 level could lead to further declines, possibly to $0.40 or lower. In case of a short-term rebound, testing the $0.50 level is possible.
Mid-term forecast:
If the downward trend continues and the price consolidates below the $0.44 level, the movement is likely to continue towards $0.35. In case of a trend reversal, the nearest target is at $0.60.
2. Support and resistance levels
Support levels: $0.44, $0.40, $0.35
Resistance levels: $0.50, $0.60
3. 🟩Entry, exit, stop loss points for a long position
Entry point: After the breakdown of the $0.50 level with confirmation of volumes.
Exit point: Level $0.60.
Stop loss: $0.44 to minimize risks if the downward trend continues.
4. 🟥Entry, exit, stop loss points for short positions
Entry point: Upon breakdown of the $0.44 level downwards with confirmation of volumes.
Exit point: Level $0.40.
Stop loss: $0.50 to minimize risks in case of a price rebound.
5. Long and short scenarios with probability assessment
🟢 LONG script:
Probability: 30%
If the price can break through and consolidate above $0.50, a trend reversal and movement to $0.60 is possible. However, this scenario is less likely given the current weakness in the market.
🛑 SHORT scenario:
Probability: 70%
If the level of $0.44 is broken down, there is a high probability of a further fall to $0.40 and below. This scenario looks more likely based on current technical indicators and overall market sentiment.
▶️Technical indicators (output, impact on price):
LiquidationHeatMap Liquidation Rates: Liquidation rates indicate high seller activity at current levels, reinforcing the bearish scenario.
Volume: Increasing volumes on a downward movement confirms bearish sentiment.
Volume Profile Anchored: Volumes are concentrated at the $0.50 and $0.60 levels, which creates resistance for the upside.
Ichimoku Cloud: The cloud is above the price, confirming the downward trend.
Parabolic SAR: Indicates a continuation of the downtrend.
EMA: Long-term moving averages are sloping downwards, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend.
YK Round Levels: The nearest round levels of $0.50 and $0.40 will act as resistance and support respectively.
RSI: The RSI indicator is in the oversold zone, which may indicate a possible rebound, but is not yet a signal for a trend reversal.
▶️On-chain data (output, impact on price):
Exchange reserve: An increase in exchange reserves over the past 7 and 30 days indicates possible sales.
Net deposits: There is an increase in net deposits on exchanges, which also indicates possible sales.
Capital inflows: Capital inflows are declining, which may increase price pressure.
Influx of large holders: The activity of large holders is also decreasing, which may indicate weakening interest in the asset.
Growth of active and new addresses: A slight increase in address activity, but this is not enough to reverse the trend.
Trading volume: Increasing volumes in a bearish trend increases the likelihood of further declines.
Increase/decrease in TVL: Decrease in TVL in ARB-related projects also confirms the bearish market sentiment.
⚠️ General conclusion:
Based on current technical indicators and on-chain data, the likelihood of a continuation of the downward trend remains high. Caution is advised when entering long positions, and short positions may be preferable in the current environment.
