August 5, 2024

I was woken up by the bombardment of messages from group members in the morning. I had planned to sleep until noon, but I was woken up by various messages and phone calls at around 9 o'clock. My group members were furious. After looking at the market, it was just moving according to expectations. I have repeatedly told the members in the group and also said on Zhihu that Bitcoin at 60,000-70,000 is a high-level adjustment. No matter where you buy it, it is high-risk and it is difficult to make a profit. The market is bound to be washed out. After all, retail investors were too enthusiastic when it was 60,000-70,000. There is no way, the market needs to cool down.

What doesn't defeat you will make you stronger

For most people, in fact, they have lost so much money in this bull market that they can no longer play. Contract players may have more positions liquidated, and there must be quite a few who have withdrawn from the circle. Many people have announced that they have ended in failure. This is basically the case for most people, but those who can survive will gradually grow. They may not make money, but they are definitely not small leeks. This market needs to go through several waves of market crashes before the mentality will be stable. In fact, if you can survive in the currency circle for a long time, there is no shortage of opportunities in the currency circle, and one day it will be your turn to make money, provided that you are willing to learn, summarize and improve. It is more difficult to make money in this market than in most other industries.

Don’t think about the market maker’s manipulation from the perspective of the leeks

The rebound from 53,000 to 70,000 yuan is actually a pull-up for the final shipment. We always look at the cost price of institutions and BlackRock. Many of these institutions and large consortiums start investing for five to ten years, especially after the ETF is passed. Their investment period for buying Bitcoin ETFs may start from ten years. Ten years later, when you look at the price of Bitcoin again, is there any difference between the cost of 30,000 yuan and the cost of 70,000 yuan? Just like when you look at the price of Bitcoin 1000U and the price of 2000U ten years ago, is there any big difference? Don't look at the cost of professional investors with the eyes of retail investors. For them, a short-term retracement of 50% is completely acceptable. What they pursue is long-term profit. Therefore, don't think that the position they buy is the bottom. Institutions and consortiums often cannot buy at the lowest point, but in the long run, they are the ones who benefit the most from the investment.

The darkest moment is before dawn

It was actually not bad when the market was at 60,000-70,000, and everyone could see hope, but now it has reached 50,000, and it has basically reached the most difficult stage. Of course, for me and my group members, it is not difficult. Everyone is short and just watching the show. There are already corpses everywhere, but it is not the time yet. There will be a chance to pick up the bloody chips, and the market will never let down those who are patient.

Finally, let’s talk about the market

Monthly level

At present, the monthly line of August has completely filled the lower shadow line of July, and the market has also left the bullish range and completely entered the bearish range. It is impossible for the market to go up in a short time. The most ideal trend of the monthly line is to fall in August, adjust at the bottom for one month in September, and start to rise in October. In this way, the cloud chart can basically reach the bottom. In short, the monthly line is quite similar to the previous 519 trend.

Weekly Level

Let's look at the weekly cloud chart first. Last week, the weekly cloud chart turned upward. Many people thought it was going to reverse, but I still think that the market has not reached the bottom. It is better to reach the real bottom. Today, the weekly line changed, and the market has turned downward again. I personally think that the market will most likely continue to go down. There is support near 5w, but strong support is not near 50,000. Of course, whether this position will rebound first and then fall or fall directly is hard to say at the moment. We need to look at the daily trend.

At the same time, the MACD at the weekly level also has to wait to return to the zero axis. Only when it reaches the zero axis can it become stronger.

Daily cloud chart

At present, the daily line has reached the bottom, but it has not come out of the bottom. We need to wait a few days to see the bottoming situation.