Daily Summary:
BTC and ETH spot ETFs both have net outflows, and the market lacks sustained capital inflows
According to Farside Investor data, last Friday, Bitcoin spot ETFs had an overall net outflow of US$234 million, with the main outflows coming from Fidelity FBTC of US$104 million, Ark Fund ARKB of US$87 million, and small inflows from BlackRock IBTC and Grayscale Mini Trust.
ETH ETF had a net outflow of $54 million, mainly from Grayscale ETHE, and other ETH ETFs had only some small transactions.
Arthur Hayes: Rumor has it that a whale has been hit hard and is selling all its cryptocurrencies
Arthur Hayes, a well-known KOL in the crypto community, tweeted that he had learned from a source that a whale had been hit hard and was selling all cryptocurrencies. "I don't know if this is true, I won't name it." Currently, most community users speculate that the whale is Jump Trading.
According to Arkham data, Jump Trading’s current stablecoin positions account for 96%, with a total position value of $595 million.
USDC holdings valued at $468 million
USDT holdings valued at $103 million
ETH holdings valued at $8.7 million
WBTC holdings valued at $2.68 million
CVX holdings valued at $1.95 million
WETH holdings valued at $1.56 million
Jupiter passes proposal to reduce JUP token supply
Previously, the Jupiter team planned to cut the token supply by 30%. The main contents include: the team voluntarily cut 30% of the allocation share; Jupuary airdrop issuance was reduced by 30%; the rest of the reduction came from LP and strategic reserves. At present, the proposal has been passed. Co-founder Meow said that the token destruction may take 6 months to complete.
Data: Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index fell to 26 today, a new low in nearly three weeks
According to Alternative data, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index fell to 26 today (the index was 34 yesterday), indicating that the market is currently in a "state of fear" and the index hit a new low in nearly three weeks.
Market analysis: The market fell sharply, and the market recovery cycle is expected to be extended
Market Trends
BTC: Bitcoin price fell sharply to $52,500, then rebounded and has now recovered to around $54,500. BTC weekly Bollinger Bands fell below the lower track. According to market news, Jump Trading is suspected to have liquidated its cryptocurrency positions.
ETH: Ethereum also plummeted, falling below $2,100 at one point. Jump Trading transferred out more than 100,000 ETH in the past week.
Altcoins: A general drop in prices, the market is wailing.
AHR999 Index: Today's AHR999 Index is 0.66, indicating a sharp drop in the index. The current price is a good buying opportunity for long-termists.
Fear and Greed Index: The current index is 26, and market sentiment has entered the fear stage.
Market Hotspots
Meme sector: The meme sector generally fell, and popular meme coins such as WIF, POPCAT, and POEPLE all fell by more than 20%.
Solana Ecosystem: Jupiter, the largest aggregation trading platform on the Solana chain, announced that it would reduce the supply of JUP by 30% through margin trading. JUP performed relatively strongly, only falling by 10%.
Macroeconomics: U.S. stocks fell more than 1%, and expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve rose
Last Friday, European and American stock markets fell by more than 1%. The S&P 500 fell 1.84% to 5,346.56 points, the Dow Jones fell 1.51% to 39,737.26 points, and the Nasdaq fell 2.43% to 16,776.16 points. Today, U.S. stock index futures continued to fall, with the Nasdaq futures falling by 3%.
At 20:30 on the evening of August 2, Beijing time, the US July non-farm report surprised the market. New employment hit a record low in three and a half years, the unemployment rate rose to the highest level in nearly three years, and triggered the recession indicator with a 100% accuracy rate - Sam's Rule. Panic spread rapidly, and traders began to bet on the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in September, and predicted that the interest rate cut this year would exceed 110 basis points.
After the data was released, the three major U.S. stock index futures fell in the short term. Nasdaq futures fell more than 2%, S&P 500 futures fell 1.6%, and Dow futures fell 1.2%; U.S. Treasury yields fell rapidly, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield once fell 19 basis points to a low of 3.79% this year; the U.S. dollar index fell in the short term.
in conclusion
The overall market is currently in a downward trend, and Bitcoin and Ethereum lack obvious capital inflow support in the short term. The capital in the altcoin market is dispersed and lacks hot spots. In terms of the macro environment, the market is optimistic about interest rate cuts, but traders believe that there may be a risk of recession. Investors should remain cautious in the current environment and wait for the market trend to become clearer before making decisions.
