Goldman Sachs economists raised the probability of a U.S. recession next year from 15% to 25%, Golden Finance reported. However, they also pointed out that despite the sharp rise in unemployment, there are "several reasons not to worry about a recession." Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius said: "We still believe that the risk of a recession is limited. The overall economy still looks good, there are no major financial imbalances, and the Fed has a lot of room to cut interest rates and can do so quickly if necessary." It is worth noting that Goldman Sachs' forecast for the Fed is not as aggressive as that of JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup. Hatzius' team expects the Fed to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September, November and December; in contrast, JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup expect a 50 basis point cut in September. "Our forecast is based on the assumption that job growth will resume in August and the FOMC will consider a 25 basis point rate cut sufficient to address any downside risks," the Goldman Sachs report said. "If we are wrong and the August employment report is as weak as in July, a 50 basis point cut could be in place in September." The economists added that they are skeptical about whether the U.S. labor market is "at risk" of a rapid deterioration. They say this because job openings suggest demand remains solid and there is no obvious shock to trigger a downturn.