In the past day, 111,866 traders were forced to close their positions in the crypto market, involving a total amount of $431 million, with the largest single liquidation amount reaching $27 million. This situation lasted for several days, causing market sentiment to fall into extreme panic.
In these consecutive market crashes, the cumulative amount of liquidation has reached 827 million US dollars, and the total amount of liquidation in the past 30 days has reached 4.01 billion US dollars. This series of large-scale liquidation events reveals the extreme volatility of the current market and the high risks faced by investors. #爆仓
The direct cause of the plunge came from last Friday's non-farm payrolls data, which triggered market concerns about a recession, triggered massive panic in the financial market, and affected the entire crypto market. Low liquidity over the weekend exacerbated market instability, causing a stampede-like continuous decline.
During this period, some market makers and large institutions participated in large-scale sell-offs. Institutions including Jump Trading sold a large amount of Ethereum, further pushing up the panic atmosphere in the market.
There are rumors that Jump Trading is facing an investigation, which led to it redeeming a large amount of Ethereum from the liquidity provider platform Lido and continuing to sell it on Binance over the weekend. The market liquidity is low over the weekend, and this large-scale sell-off caused Ethereum to fall much more than Bitcoin.
At the same time, although the Ethereum selling behavior that began last Friday has significantly reduced and even came close to completely stopping this week, Jump's sudden selling behavior has brought new pressure to the market. This sudden and massive selling behavior, coupled with the fragility of the market itself, combined to drive the price of Ethereum further down.
Continuous redemptions and selling activities over the weekend caused Ethereum prices to fall sharply, even breaking through the key $2,800 support line, which has been a key medium- and long-term defense line since the rise.
Once the $2,800 line is broken steadily, there is almost no substantial support below, and the next weaker support level is $2,620 (position 1 as shown in the figure below). If this support level also fails to maintain the price, Ethereum may test the more critical support range of $2,400 to $2,450 (position 2), which has shown strong market reactions many times in history.
The market downturn not only tests the resilience of the currency, but also is an excellent opportunity to screen future investment targets. Here are some tokens that have performed well in the current volatile market and deserve special attention.
Especially the meme coin concept, which has shown extremely high activity in the market, occupying three seats in the list. Solana (SOL) needs no introduction. As mentioned before, I have decided to abandon Ethereum and invest fully in Solana and its ecological tokens. JUP in the list is a previously recommended Solana ecological coin, Ondo involves the concept of physical assets (RWA), and Fetch.ai (FET) represents the concept of AI. These are the preferred targets mentioned before.
How will the market develop next?
Investors need to pay close attention to the trends of the U.S. stock market this week, especially the daytime trend of futures and the opening performance in the evening. These factors will directly affect the volatility of the cryptocurrency market.
One of the biggest focuses in the market is ETF data, especially whether Grayscale's selling of Ethereum will stop and whether Bitcoin can achieve net inflows. Last week, Bitcoin showed a net outflow trend, which had an adverse impact on the market.
It is worth noting that this round of decline mainly occurred during the active trading hours of the US stock market, indicating that the US sell-off was the main source of market pressure, while the Asian session usually sees the market rebound.
The market is currently mainly affected by expectations of an economic recession. The last statistical data was affected by the hurricane and may be distorted. If the data can be revised in the future and combined with the expectation of interest rate cuts, we have reason to believe that market conditions will improve in September.
Especially in September, if the unemployment rate returns to normal and the possible interest rate cut decision at the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on the 18th will be a major benefit to the market. Relatively speaking, August can be a difficult period because the month lacks expected positive events like Trump's speech and there are no other significant market drivers outside of spot ETFs and interest rate cut expectations.
Therefore, August is destined to be a difficult month, and the situation will gradually improve in September. The above picture shows the performance of Bitcoin in each month of the year in history. In the past, August and September were also the worst performing months for Bitcoin.
In the past two days, cryptocurrencies have plummeted, altcoins have pulled back sharply, and the market is wailing, but looking at the chain, whales are increasing their holdings of these coins!
1、TON#Toncoin
Toncoin (TON), the cryptocurrency for Telegram, has seen a price drop of more than 17% over the past month. Despite this, on-chain analysis reveals a positive buying opportunity. The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio suggests that TON is currently underpriced in the market, which has attracted the attention of large investors.
Specifically, TON’s MVRV ratios on moving averages at different time scales are all negative, with the MVRV ratios of the 30-day and 90-day moving averages being -6.39% and -6.87% respectively, indicating a potential buy signal.
A negative indicator means that the current market value is lower than the price at which most investors acquire their assets, which is a good time to enter the market. In addition, the number of whales has increased by 2% in the past month, and the number of holding addresses has continued to set new highs!
2、TRX#trx
The net flow of TRX large holders has increased significantly by 243% in the past 30 days. It should be noted that large holders refer to coins that hold more than 0.1% of the total circulation. The increase in net flow indicates that whales are continuing to increase their positions, which is a clear bullish signal.
3、BNB#BNB走势
BNB’s Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has been trending upwards during this period. This indicator measures the amount of money flowing into and out of an asset market. As of yesterday, BNB’s CMF was 0.24, and sideways price movement when CMF is rising indicates a possible bullish divergence.
This indicates that more and more funds are pouring into the asset, which is usually a sign of larger investors increasing their holdings. In addition, it has been quite a while since the new project was launched, and it is estimated that it will be launched soon, which will be a wave of positive news, so you can look forward to it.
These three coins are the feedback of on-chain data in the context of the recent sharp drop. The spot market is relatively stable, and the sharp drop is also a good time to build a position. Those who are interested can refer to it and wait for good news.
