A fan friend shared with me his operations in the past 4 months.
He is not a swindler at all, he only plays with BTC, does not touch contracts, and does not use leverage. His position is about 100,000 US dollars.
He entered the market in April and acquired 80% of his position at around BTC66,000.
There was a big drop in early May, and I sold half of my position at around 60,000.
When the market rebounded in early June, he took back half of his position at 66,000.
After the sharp drop in the past two days, he felt there was no hope and sold most of his positions at 64,000.
After reading this, you can review his operations.
His operation is quite representative.
I hope everyone can see a bit of themselves in it.
one,
One undoubted fact is
He lost money.
Looking back today, he has not made any money, but has lost money instead, from April to now.
Many operations are quite confusing.
But today we feel that his operation is confusing.
Dear leeks, how do you perform when you are in the game?
His typical right side trader
To put it simply,
A typical case of chasing highs and selling lows.
This kind of chasing up and selling down, in the unilateral upward trend, is undoubtedly
It is possible to make money
But unfortunately, from April to now, he has actually been in a period of wide fluctuations.
Therefore, during the volatility, his pursuit of rising and falling prices caused him to suffer losses.
I have been repeatedly reminding you all leeks
The most common mistake made by novices and leeks is to chase the rise and sell the fall
Because this is the simplest strategy with the lowest threshold and the easiest to use.
Brothers, but you have to know that everyone knows the strategy
Without a strategy to take advantage of information asymmetry, why should I wait for the leeks to make money?
What do you earn money from?
Buying high and selling low can only make money in a one-sided bull market.
So, this is why all the leeks are eager for a big bull market
Because in a bull market, and only in a bull market, the leeks
Only then is it possible to make money.
Unfortunately, this year,
We may not even see a one-sided bull market.
two,
Let us look at this case from another angle.
This fan friend is, of course, also considered a leek master,
His losses were not actually that much.
All in all, it’s a loss of less than 10%.
Such a loss is definitely not a serious injury.
From a certain perspective, such losses can be easily recovered with just one upward trend.
As long as he buys the bottom when it falls to around 55,000 in the future
Take action when the next wave reaches 70,000
The losses can be filled.
Why? It is precisely because he did not touch the contract, did not add leverage, and did not choose other altcoins.
So you see, even if you are a white leek, even if you do all kinds of psychedelic operations, even if there is no framework, even if you are in a bear market
But his loss was not much.
He has the possibility of making a comeback.
When the big bull market comes in 2025, he will have the possibility to participate again.
And being alive is important enough.
The possibility of participation is even more crucial.
If you don’t understand this now
It’s better to quit the circle early.
What I have been saying over and over again is that in the cryptocurrency world, even if you are a leek
There are thresholds for everything.
three,
With the release of non-farm data and PMI data, the U.S. stock market collapsed.
Half of the market's views interpreted this crash as the beginning of a recession.
But one thing is for sure, for sure
The market has now begun to enter a "trading recession".
I have mentioned this repeatedly in previous articles.
The biggest worry is that cryptocurrencies will collapse in resonance with U.S. stocks.
Now it's a resonance collapse.
BTC's decline is relatively restrained. However, altcoins led by ETH and SOL
The army was completely routed, blood flowed like a river
The entire village is now at a freezing point.
Today's market BTC fear and greed index has reached 34
It's not extreme panic,
The reason is that there is still a big cake to support it.
When Bitcoin breaks through 60500, it will continue to go down to 55500.
Then test the last low of 53000
At that time, market sentiment reached its lowest point.
Four,
In the short term, the cryptocurrency market is in a downward trend.
If someone suggests covering the position at this time
I think you should stay away.
Especially the copycat players.
My main positions are in Bitcoin, Bitcoin and SOL.
There are very few positions in the Shanzhai sector. My judgment is that in the short term, Shanzhai will not see any improvement.
For me, even if the copycat stocks have a short-term rebound, it is the time to run away at high prices, rather than to cover the positions.
The cost-effectiveness of covering a position now is too low and the risk is too high.
But as someone who considers cryptocurrency as a long-term asset allocation
I don’t have the habit of running away.
In the medium and long term, the second half of the bull-bear cycle has already appeared
I always believe that the bull market is on the way.
Because the core logic is
Whether the U.S. stock market is facing a recession or not
His long-term framework must be to release liquidity
Especially since the US debt has exceeded 3.5 billion. If we don’t release some liquidity
He couldn't even pay the interest.
This will directly lead to the bankruptcy of this financial game.
Therefore, a rate cut in September is inevitable, and the possible benefits are
The Fed will significantly increase expectations for rate cuts, increase the number of rate cuts, and boost morale and confidence
Of course, this also includes the confidence of the cryptocurrency community.
There is a new product on BN that is about to start a surge, and I have mentioned it to old fans repeatedly in the past few days. Cook the page and enter the village #美国7月非农就业增长放缓 #美联储何时降息？ #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ $BTC $ETH
