#预计美联储加息周期即将结束，预计降息在2024年下半年。乐观的话会在5～6月进行首次降息。
During the Fed's "pause period", the average return on U.S. stocks was higher than during the easing period after the first interest rate cut.
Based on the previous five rate hike cycles since 1990, "the Fed paused an average of 10 months between its last hike and its first rate cut."
The last interest rate increase was on July 27. According to optimistic expectations, an interest rate cut may occur from May to June of 2024. The market will adjust for a period of time and continue to rise after the interest rate cut begins. Referring to the interest rate cuts in 2019 and 2020, at the beginning Stocks fell in the month after the rate cut, but soon went on to hit new highs. The current macro data is closer to that of 2019
So my conclusion is that the same applies to crypto markets
1. Market performance was optimistic during the suspension of interest rate hikes
2. The market performed poorly in the month after the interest rate cut began.
3. After the interest rate cut, the macro data recovered well, the unemployment rate did not rise significantly, and the stock market will continue to rise after a short adjustment.
