In fact, the recession should have come a long time ago. This wave is simply forced to prolong life by the progress of AI.

In the short cycle, the last round of correction was not thorough enough. If you look at it from a higher perspective, the US stock market has been bullish for more than 200 years. There is a chance for a large decline cycle in the macro sense.

However, I think it will take another 30 years to know when the big recession will begin.

If the Kondratieff cycle can take effect again, it is now the end of the depression and the beginning of the recovery of the fifth Kondratieff information technology Kondratieff cycle.

So it is very likely that the sixth Kondratieff cycle is AI+mechanization, which was initially formed during the fifth recovery period.

After ten years, the sixth prosperity period will be fully implemented, and productivity development will enter a stage where the demographic dividend is no longer needed.

After 20 years, it will be fully applied. At this time, the unemployed population will have a violent conflict with the status quo of mechanized mass production, and it will enter a recession period.

Because development is no longer limited by cheap labor, land finance and the real estate market will be destroyed, and it will enter a depression period after 30 years.