#GlobalRecession
Last night, the US employment data was released, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. The data was not good, which triggered market concerns about the US economic recession, and then led to the decline of both US stocks and the cryptocurrency market. But this is not the main factor. At most, the employment data accelerated the market's downward trend.
Did the US economy start to decline this year? Don't make a fuss. Since the beginning of the epidemic, the world has entered a major recession. It's just that countries have taken a series of measures to save the economy. For example, the United States has given money to companies and residents through government debt, while our country has "optimized" economic data through the Statistics Bureau, actively transformed, and controlled residents' speeches. The methods are different, but the purpose is to save the economy and appease and reduce social dissatisfaction. (I am patriotic and understand that the government has its own difficulties, but controlling speech is a bad move.)
What I want to say is that the global recession cycle has already begun and it is difficult to save it this time through conventional means such as blindly lowering interest rates. The premise of lowering interest rates and releasing water is that there must be demand. Residents have the demand for consumption and enterprises have the demand for investment and expansion of reproduction. Only then can the economy survive. But what I have observed is that the household sector has too much debt and has no desire to consume, and the corporate sector is also laying off employees and reducing production.
You know the marginal effect. Blindly adding investment will indeed bring huge profits in the early stage, but after exceeding a certain level, the benefits will become less and less, and eventually become negative. Trump is a wise man. The United States used to be like a rich factory manager who gave money, technology and the army to open branches all over the world. Now there is no cheap labor and resources, and the investment is not enough to cover the expenditure. Continuing to maintain the globalization strategy will only drag down the United States, because the British Empire, the empire on which the sun never sets, was dragged to death in this way to some extent. Therefore, his governing strategy is to abandon globalization and guard his own piece of land. If there is still a place where leeks can be cut, the United States would have smelled the smell long ago. The reality shows that there are no leeks in the world now. They have all been cut, and the demand can no longer go up. The cards in the hands of various countries have almost been played out, and the time for clearing and washing the market and restarting the game is getting closer and closer.
