Overall comments:
1. Pinbar candlestick pattern: Small candle body and long candle wicks indicate a possible reversal. Currently, the weekly candlestick is showing signs of decline after reaching a high near $70,000 and falling to near $60,000.
2. RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI is near 50, showing a balance between buying and selling forces. However, if RSI continues to fall below 50, this could confirm a continued bearish trend.
3. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD is negative and continues to decrease, this is a sign of a continuing downtrend.
Third quarter forecast:
- Price reduction scenario: Based on current technical indicators, the possibility that prices will continue to decrease in the third quarter is very high. The downside target could be the $50,000 - $53,000 area to retest the support level.
- Support testing scenario: If the support threshold at 50,000 - 53,000 USD cannot hold, the price may continue to fall deeper to the 42,000 - 45,000 USD range.
Factors affecting:
- FED policy: The FED's interest rate reduction in September can create conditions to attract cash flow from traditional investment channels such as stocks, gold, and real estate into the crypto market. If this happens, it could put upward pressure on BTC again.
- Market support: The increase in investment cash flow will determine whether BTC price can rebound from the support zone or not. If cash flow is strong, prices may increase again in the fourth quarter.
Conclude:
Currently, technical indicators are leaning towards a short-term bearish trend. However, changes in policy and cash flow into the market can strongly affect price trends in the near future. Closely monitoring market fluctuations and policy responses will be important in making sound investment decisions.
#July_NonFarmPayrolls_Shock #US_Job_Market_Slowdown #Babylon_Mainnet_Launch #BinanceHODLerBANANA #HamsterKombat
