The likelihood of a global recession in the near term has decreased, according to recent analyses. Economists are generally more optimistic about economic stability, with the consensus probability of a recession in the next 12 months falling below 50% for the first time since mid-2022. Factors contributing to this improved outlook include resilient consumer spending, a strong labor market, and effective monetary policies by central banks like the Federal Reserve
Risk of global recession falls substantially | Grant Thornton
Recession Outlook: How Wall Street's Forecast Has Changed Since 2022 - Business Insider
However, there are still notable risks and uncertainties. These include potential disruptions from geopolitical tensions, extreme weather events, and financial instability in certain regions. For example, the World Bank highlights concerns about slower growth in major economies like China and Europe, which could impact global economic dynamics
Overall, while the immediate risk of a global recession has diminished, continued vigilance and policy responsiveness will be key to maintaining economic stability.
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