Tonight at 20:30, the big non-farm data will be released. First of all, the unemployment rate has basically remained high. The unemployment rate is too high, which is a signal of interest rate cuts, which can be understood as a good thing!
Furthermore, the expected value of non-farm employment is 17.5, and the previous value is 20.6. The expected value is a positive factor. However, it should be noted that among the data of the past ten months, only three months’ published values were lower than the expected values, which was considered a positive factor. The other seven months’ values were all higher than the expected values, which was considered a negative factor!
The two pictures below are a comparison of unemployment rates and non-agricultural employment over the past ten months!
The unemployment rate remains high, and economic activity on the surface is not very good. Government stimulus may be needed, such as reducing corporate operating costs and expanding corporate operating profits. This requires reducing financing costs and expanding corporate terminal consumption enthusiasm. To put it bluntly, these all require real money stimulation!
The number of non-farm payrolls is a strange thing. In the past 10 months, only three months of the data were lower than the previous value, and not once was it equal to the expected value. This shows that the employment environment is relatively good, so the number of non-farm payrolls is rising rapidly. This is also a core indicator that the Federal Reserve is unwilling to cut interest rates until the last minute!
If the non-farm data released this time can be maintained below 18.5, or at most below 19.5, it can be regarded as a positive expectation for September/November!
When the evening data is released, BTC will more or less experience violent fluctuations. The fluctuation range is yet to be determined, but there will definitely be fluctuations. In addition, today is Friday. If the announced value is lower than the previous value and the unemployment rate is equal to or greater than 4.1, it can be regarded as a positive. When the downward spike occurs tonight, you can consider betting on a low-long position!
If the market closes tomorrow morning and does not hit a new low, you can buy some pork trotter rice on the dip if the market falls back over the weekend!
