📉 Why was the market falling today?
Hello friends and everyone, today the market is not in the best condition. Let's understand.
Yesterday the Fed meeting was held, where everything was quite positive. Powell made it clear that the Fed Funds rate is likely to be cut in September. Of course, they will be looking at annual inflation and so on.
📑 There is an important but. The annual inflation sample includes all 12 months, a new month is added, the one from a year ago is dropped from the calculation. (I hope that's clear). Last year, August/September for two added as much as 0.9% to inflation.
Which means that if inflation is 0% in those months this year, the rate cut will be 100%.
By the way, a 100% cut is also already mortgaged by the market, so we could have a frontrunner in August/September. And even if we fall now, it doesn't change anything globally.
I keep betting on September as a month with possible positivity for risk assets (crypto)
🔖 Why did it fall?
1) Fed meeting pattern. The first 2-3 days after the meeting the market always falls.
2) Rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
❕ It's hard, it's boring, it's exhausting. But this is the market, and there is no other way. 70% of the time the market is either falling or flat, and only 30% is growing 🔥
