Summary of the key points of the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on August 1, 2024:
Dual mission: Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve focuses on the dual mission and strives to restore the inflation rate to the target of 2%.
Labor market: The labor market has become more balanced and remains robust despite the slowdown in consumption.
Economic data: Data show that the labor market has returned to pre-epidemic levels and inflation is slightly above the 2% target.
Inflation and risks: As the labor market cools, inflation has declined and risks are moving towards a better balance.
September interest rates: Interest rates may be adjusted in September, depending on the decline in inflation and the stability of the labor market.
Expectations for interest rate cuts:
The market predicts that the probability of a rate cut in September has reached 100%, of which the probability of a one-code rate cut is 86.5% and the probability of a two-code rate cut is 13.5%.
Powell ruled out the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut, saying: "I don't want to specify what actions we are going to take, but this is not something we are considering now."
Employment data:
In July, small non-farm employment increased by 122,000, a six-month low.
All four major U.S. stock indexes rose, influenced by Powell's dovish remarks and slowing employment data.