1. The highs and lows continue to remain slightly lower;
This indicates that in the current high-level oscillation range, the price is moving towards a potential bull flag, with highs and lows slowly declining over a long period of time.
2. A cross star is formed;
This shows that the market's long and short divergence completely broke out in July, and a fierce game broke out between the two sides, but in the end the bulls won a small victory;
3. Spot trading volume recovers;
Compared with the past three months, the spot transaction volume in July began to pick up, corresponding to the cross star K-line pattern, which means that there was a large turnover in the market in July, which often indicates that a new trend is about to emerge!
Summarize:
Since the BTC price first broke through 70,000, the monthly line has always maintained high fluctuations, and there has been no significant correction in terms of closing price, which shows that market demand has maintained the price in the past few months;
When a high cross star appears, the trading volume increases and the turnover is sufficient, the subsequent price trend will often end the original oscillating structure, and a strong trend is likely to appear;
Trading ideas:
After the $62,300-$73,800 range is confirmed to be broken, there is a high probability that it will usher in a strong trend for at least 2 months, whether it is upward or downward;
My countermeasure is to increase available funds for trend strategies!
Watching the Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's press conference in the early morning gave me a completely different feeling:
1. The expression of the interest rate decision statement is still very restrained:
The statement mentioned that the risks of achieving employment and inflation targets are gradually becoming balanced, and the committee is concerned about the risks of its dual mission - emphasizing the simultaneous focus on employment and inflation, which is different from the high focus on inflation risks in June. The downplaying of the focus on inflation shows that inflation is no longer an obstacle to the Fed's interest rate cuts.
The statement mentioned that unless there is more confidence that inflation will continue to reach the 2% target, it would not be appropriate to lower the target range. It is a cliché, the wording is cautious enough, and no expectations are given.
2. But at Powell's press conference, the perception was slightly different.
The issue of rate cuts was discussed at this meeting, and the consensus was that if the data supported it, then action would be taken at the next meeting, not this meeting. We are approaching the point of lowering the policy rate, but have not yet reached it safely.
Regarding the two goals of inflation and employment, whichever deviates too far from the normal value should be the focus. In the past two years, the focus has been on inflation, and in the future, the focus should be on employment.
In general:
Personally, I am still neutral and slightly dovish, but as previously stated, if inflation and employment do not have problems in the seven or eight months before the September interest rate meeting, and if the slowdown in the second quarter can be continued (flat in April, weak in May, and further weak in June), then a rate cut in September is highly likely. However, as previously stated, even if the rate is cut, the subsequent actions will still be taken step by step, and the frequency and magnitude will be determined by the camera, and there will probably be no preset path.
August 14th is the CPI for July. If the monthly rate of CPI is within 0.2 this time, it means that there will definitely be an interest rate cut in September.
