On Thursday, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% for the eighth consecutive time, in line with market expectations. Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30, and the market will look for the shadow of a rate cut in September. The number of ADP jobs in the US small non-farm payrolls increased by 122,000 in July, 150,000 lower than the previous value and 150,000 lower than the expected value, the smallest increase since January 2024. The US ADP data and labor cost indicators show a slowdown in the job market, consolidating expectations for a rate cut in September.
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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has published an information page specifically for investors affected by Terraform Labs. The SEC said that since the two parties reached a settlement agreement last month, investors have been asking how compensation will be carried out. The SEC claimed on its webpage that the SEC will not receive any compensation until investors and creditors receive full compensation from the corresponding bankruptcy case, and the Chapter 11 plan confirmation hearing and start date are expected to be held in the fall. The draft BTC reserve plan proposed by U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis shows that part of the funds for purchasing BTC will be achieved by revaluing the Federal Reserve's gold. According to the draft, the plan will purchase up to 200,000 BTC per year for five years, totaling 1 million BTC, and BTC will be held for at least 20 years and used only to repay federal debts. Thereafter, no more than 10% of the assets may be sold in any two years. The funds for purchasing BTC will come from the difference between reducing the surplus funds of the Federal Reserve Bank and revaluing gold certificates. (Note, only a draft) The Immunef report shows that so far this year, the crypto industry has suffered losses of more than $1.19 billion due to 149 hacking and scams. The year-to-date total is up 16.3% from the same period in 2023, when losses were $1.02 billion. The Law Commission of England and Wales urged its government to classify all crypto assets as a new form of personal property in its final report on digital assets, highlighting the inadequacy of the current classification of personal property and its legal implications for crypto assets. Analyst Eugene Ng Ah Sio said he is not too concerned about short-term price fluctuations now because he has completed his long-term holdings and will take a wait-and-see approach. With MtGox's structural supply coming to an end, interest rates about to be cut, and FTX set to pay out at the end of the year, the situation in the short term is clear. On July 31, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index was 61 (67 yesterday), and market greed continued to decline.
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said: BTC may have a use case as a means of storing value. He also said that he does not think the Fed will make a decision to cut interest rates at this meeting, and the possibility of one or two rate cuts in the fall seems greater. David Mericle, chief US economist at Goldman Sachs, said that the Fed only needs to "slightly" increase its confidence in the inflation outlook to cut interest rates. RektCapital said that BTC prices are expected to rise in September. BTC failed to break through the re-accumulation range within 100 days after the market fell by half in April. Some traders believe that BTC is more likely to break through the $100,000 mark in 2025, rather than 2024 as some people predict. Nickel Digital Asset Management released the results of the survey, saying that the agency recently conducted research on institutional investors and wealth managers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, Singapore, Brazil and the United Arab Emirates. The total assets under management of the respondents are about $1.7 trillion. Currently, about 20% of the surveyed companies expect BTC to reach $100,000 within two years. The agency was founded by former Bankers Trust, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase personnel. On July 31, MtGox transferred out 33,963.888 BTC. Currently, the MtGox address still holds 46,162 BTC, worth about $3.056 billion. Since July 5, the MtGox address has transferred out a total of 95,522.7 BTC to pay creditors. On July 30, the US BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of $18.1 million. Among them, BlackRock IBIT had a net inflow of $75.1 million, and Grayscale GBTC had a net outflow of $73.6 million. On July 30, the US ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of $33.6 million. Among them, BlackRock ETHA had a net inflow of $117.9 million, Fidelity FETF had a net inflow of $16.4 million, and Grayscale ETHE had a net outflow of $120.3 million. One week after its launch, the inflow of BlackRock ETH spot ETF has ranked among the top 15 of all new ETFs in the United States this year (there are about 330 new ETFs this year), and the inflow of the top 4 is equal to the inflow of all BTC spot ETFs. BlackRock data shows that as of July 29, its ETH spot ETF ETHA has a market value of approximately US$502.4 million and a holding of 151,820 ETH. Since its launch on January 11, Grayscale's spot BTC and ETH ETFs have had a total outflow of more than US$20.5 billion.
Grayscale GBTC lost an average of about $1.377 per day, with a total outflow of $18.86 billion, and Grayscale's ETH ETF lost $1.72 billion in funds in five days. In contrast, the other nine BTC ETFs approved in the United States at the same time maintained a positive balance. Katalin Tischhauser, head of research at Sygnum Bank, said that the ETH spot ETF is expected to have inflows of $5 billion to $10 billion in the first year. Based on current and historical market patterns, the spot BTC ETF may attract $30 billion to $50 billion in inflows in the first 12 months of trading. Data released by the United States on Wednesday showed that the number of ADP jobs in the United States increased by 122,000 in July, lower than the previous value of 150,000 and lower than the expected value of 150,000, the smallest increase since January 2024. U.S. ADP data and labor cost indicators show a slowdown in the job market, consolidating expectations of a rate cut in September. PGIM economists said that the Fed's attention has shifted from inflation to the labor market, which allowed the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September. The possibility of a rate cut in November cannot be ignored, and there may be another rate cut at the December meeting. The overall weakness in the job market should give the Fed confidence that it is time to signal the normalization of monetary policy. On Thursday, the Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% for the eighth consecutive time, in line with market expectations. "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos said: The Fed's statement is very concerned about both aspects of its dual mission (stable prices/protecting employment). The statement deleted the wording of "high attention" to inflation risks described in the past two years. This shift is significant because it shows that inflation may no longer be an obstacle to the Fed's rate cuts, especially if the labor market continues to cool. Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30, and the market will look for the shadow of a rate cut in September. Currently, the US dollar index fell 1.4%, the Nasdaq rose 2.4%, the gold price rose slightly by 0.6%, and the gold price rose by 0.5%. #美联储何时降息？ #美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易 #美国政府转移BTC
