#美联储何时降息？
The market is too eager to speculate on the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed should not be under such urgent pressure to cut interest rates. First, it must consider the secondary inflation after the interest rate cut, and second, it must consider the issue of fiscal costs. The Fed will have three meetings this year on September 18, November 7, and December 18. If it must cut interest rates, when will it happen? There are still three months before the US election on November 5. I think the dealers also need to look at the direction of the government and whether it will be more explosive after the election.
From the trend point of view, the market has a very large divergence between long and short positions. The consensus bullish signal is weak, the differences in the market are huge, and the wait-and-see attitude outside the market continues to extend. The big bull market must be driven by funds. Without large capital entering the market, the probability of a big bull market breaking out in the short term is low. In the short term, it is still dominated by shocks. When the trend line is effectively broken, a directional choice can be made. It is more reasonable to start a crazy bull market after the beginning of 2025...
