In this article you will know what we expect from the fundamentally strong project PolkaDot and it's token DOT price in the upcoming months.
Hello, Skyrexians!
Despite the Bitcoin price fast recovery after correction, altcoins remain dead and we understand that it's really annoying for most of market participants. Most of traders now in huge loss after -60% dump for entire crypto market since March 2024. But crypto trading is very risky to experience it without proficiency in different crypto trading strategies. This time even top crypto bot trading strategies and the best crypto traders failed. Nobody has been waiting for such a big crash. Analyzing ideas of top crypto traders on TradingView we can see that most of them are still bullish. For sure it does not mean that market will definitely do down, but if when it start bouncing they remain bullish mood it's gonna be dangerous signal and different trading tools such as automated trading bots, grid trading bot and other algorithmic trading bots can face with a huge loss again. In our opinion only ai crypto trading bot can overcome this problem because of using non linear approach.
In today's article we are going to share with you our analysis on $DOT to help you setup your crypto trading bot algorithm or trade manually. Hope it will help to avoid mistakes and decrease potential losses. Let's get started!
DOT macro overview
History of this crypto asset has enough bars to make a complex analysis. This fundamentally strong L0 project has been listed in 2020 just before the massive bull run. The previous bull run wave the largest degree wave 1. After that we saw the first sell off. Some traders may tell that it's wave 4, but we counted it as wave A inside the larger wave 2. Wave B set up the bull trap and printed the irregular correction and after that the wave C has started.
In our opinion this wave C inside 2 has been finished in October 2023 with the massive reversal bar at the bottom. This is the strongest signal of trend end. Now the new impulsive wave 3 has been started. We want you to pay attention to the fact that DOT is the uptrend asset, price has not hit the previous bull run start and it's the great sign that in this cycle it has a great chances to set new ATH.
Talking about potential targets we can use our favorite Fibonacci extension. The most conservative target is $51 (almost at the ATH), the likely one is $79 and unbelievable is $119. We expect the reaching at least the first target in $2024-$2025.
Is wave C inside 2 finished?
Earlier we considered the bear market as the irregular correction and the move from ATH to the bottom was the wave C. Wave C usually consists of 5 waves. This time we can clearly count these waves. Awesome Oscillator divergence helps us to count waves. Wave 5 has been finished with the bullish divergent bar with the MFI squat. In conjunction this is strong reversal sign.
All these statements tell us that new bull market has been started, let's try to understand which stage of it is now.
Is pump upcoming soon?
Base scenarios for DOT is price increase in the upcoming months. As you can see on the chart the wave 1 has been finished and current retracement is the wave 2 inside new bull run.
Price has already formed the bullish reversal bar with the squat MFI at the potential bottom. In case of success we believe in the fast reaching $18 target as the local wave 3. But two facts concerns us: price fell below 0.618 and stayed there for a long time and bullish reversal bar still has not been confirmed with the price breakout. This is why we have no right not to consider the alternative scenario.
Alternative scenario - if we are completely wrong
We shall take into account scenario if bear market is just a wave A which also usually consists of 5 waves. In this case growth from October 2023 to March 2024 is just a wave B, but how it's possible? price has not reached even 0.5 on log chart. On the regular chart it has reached only 0.23.
It does not look like wave B in zigzag correction. It means that this scenario is unlikely. Moreover if this scenario is valid bull run (wave 1) was much shorter in terms of time than wave 2.
Is DOT ready to grow?
To answer this question we need to count waves inside wave 2 of this bull run. Let's take a look at the price chart below.
We counted waves as the irregular ABC correction. Wave has been already finished with the Awesome Oscillator divergence and bullish reversal bar. Therefore we expect price increase in the upcoming weeks.
Conclusion
In this article we considered all possible scenarios. We realized that negative bearish scenario is very unlikely. Setting new lower low was possible only if large wave B has the triangle shape. In this case it can retrace not that much, but it's definitely not a triangle. We may saw triangle on ATOM, but for DOT it's much more likely that wave 3 of bull run is about to begin. Anyway control your risk, don't put that money which you cannot afford to lose.
Best regards,
Skyrex team
