#美国政府转移BTC #美国PCE通胀放缓 #美联储何时降息？
First of all, the so-called escape from the top means to sell at a profit before the end of the cycle, rather than arbitrage. As the saying goes, those who know how to buy are students, and those who know how to sell are masters. "How to sell?" "When to sell?" Of course, you can't rely on guessing, let alone looking for answers on social media.
Not to mention that market sentiment itself can be artificially interfered with and reflexive to actual transactions, the essence of a trading strategy that follows the crowd is no strategy at all, which is similar to hitting the jackpot. Therefore, we should have a trading method that suits our personal risk tolerance.
I use the research on chain data as a reference for my personal trading system, not because it is more effective than other technical theories, but because I think it is simpler and easier to master. As retail investors, we can obtain effective data of different algorithms on various platforms with almost zero threshold. On the basis of understanding their underlying logic, they are differentiated by different functions such as funds, emotions, supply and demand, metaphysics, etc. When most signals point to the same conclusion, this conclusion is often correct with a high probability.
The above picture is a signal trigger (CTFD) used to find the top/bottom area of the BTC cycle. Its algorithm has two references:
1. The Mayer Multiple indicator is based on the principle of measuring the degree to which the BTC price deviates from the 200-day moving average. The greater the deviation, the higher the probability of approaching the peak/low point. Historically, overbought and oversold conditions usually occur when its value is 2.4 and 0.8.
2. Evaluate the correlation between “BTC price” and “profitable percentage in circulation”; the principle is that at the end of either a bear or bull market, supply and demand reach an extreme balance, so the correlation between price and profitability deviates from the normal range, and when it drops below 0.75, it reaches the selection criteria for an extreme bull/bear market.
Therefore, when the signal trigger meets the above two conditions at the same time, that is, when the "Mayer Multiple" exceeds 2.4 (oversold), and the correlation between "Price & Profitability" drops below 0.75, a "green signal" appears, which means that the market has entered the top area of the cycle.
When the "Mayer Multiple" is below 0.8 (overbought) and the correlation of "Price & Profitability" also drops below 0.75, a "red signal" appears, which means that the market has entered the bottom area of the cycle.
According to data backtesting, the signal indicator gave hints of the bear market bottom price range in the four time periods of January-July 2015, December 2018-February 2019, July 2022, and November 2022. It gave hints of the bull market top price range in the three time periods of December 2017, January 2021, and February 2021. Although they are not precise absolute prices, they are still quite accurate in terms of the range, which is worth your reference.
$BOME $BTC $FOR
