With the support of the Bitcoin Conference and the election, Bitcoin once surged to a high of 70,000 yesterday, but at the critical moment, bad news came. The address of the US government moved, and 30,000 bitcoins were transferred to a new wallet address. At the same time, the address of Mentougou also moved, and the market fell in response, directly falling more than 5 points to around 66,000. At present, the US government address still holds 183,439 bitcoins, and this transfer is just a wallet arrangement.
People joked that Trump declared at the conference that if he came to power, he would not sell the cake, but keep it as a strategic reserve. "Old Deng is now in power, I will sell it before you come to power." Of course, this is just a joke. In order to get the results of the campaign, everyone must have tried their best, so they dare to say and do anything. As for whether it can be realized, that is a matter for the future. According to statistics, during his previous presidency, Trump only successfully kept 23% of his promises, achieved 22% of his concessions, but did not fulfill 53% of his promises.
On the macro level, the market has basically fully priced in the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in September, but this meeting may only give preliminary hints and will not have any radical direction, which means that it may be a speech that falls short of expectations.
On July 29, Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 124 million US dollars, BlackRock IBIT had an inflow of 200 million, and the others had small outflows.
On July 29, the Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of US$98.3 million, Grayscale ETHE had an outflow of US$210 million, and the others had small inflows.
These are two completely opposite situations. The other companies are completely unable to contain the outflow of Grayscale, and this situation is likely to continue this week, so Ethereum should not perform very well in the last two days of July.
PlanB said that miners' income will bottom out after the halving in April 2024. I expect the price of Bitcoin to double in 3-5 months. His statement is based on his own model. It can be seen that the price lags behind the model basically every time, so there is a high probability that there will be a wave of market before the end of the year. But I looked at the fifth position of his model, and it is not as simple as doubling. The price is about 400,000 to 500,000 US dollars. However, as the market develops later, the model should be able to fix the value.
Yesterday, there should be few people who firmly believed that the market could not go up like me. The fact is that when the crowds are bustling and the mood is high, the market is about to adjust. The supply of Mentougou is still the biggest negative for the market. As long as it moves, it will cause a sharp drop. Moreover, Mentougou cooperates very well every time, which really makes people think that there is a black hand behind the scenes. Regardless of whether he does it or not, there should not be a new round of unilateral bull market before this mountain is moved. And there should be no new highs. The support level is still 63000-65000
Don’t even think about a new high for the second cake. Let’s wait for Grayscale to release the supply first.
In terms of altcoins, the old DEFI has made some moves today. MKR, COMP, and AAVE have performed well, but they are still relatively at the bottom and cannot reach the linkage price of Ethereum around 3,300. Many of them may even have to double or triple to reach it. They are completely incomparable with the SOL ecosystem.
The new leaders of the SOL ecosystem are still JTO and JUP. But there is a DEX called ORCA that has actually been ignored. Most DEX users are paying attention to JUP and RAY. In fact, from the comparison of trading volume and TVL, the current price and market value of this DEX are relatively underestimated.
There is also a DEFI liquidity protocol called KMNO, which also has high TVL, low market value and low price. But I don’t know if it can succeed.
Bitcoin Fear Greed Index: 67 (Greed)
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