Why BTC could rise in 2024
Bitcoin has four reasons for growth next year: the approaching halving, the possible launch of the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States, the resolution of Binance’s conflict with regulators, and a reduction in the key rate.
Reason 1. Halving is getting closer
BTC is a deflationary coin with a limited supply. Limited emission and halvings are responsible for the value of Bitcoin.
A total of 21 million BTC will be released.
Halving - reducing the speed of mining (coin production) by half. It occurs once every 4 years, or every 210 blocks mined, and creates a shortage of BTC in the market. Scarcity provokes demand, the coin begins to grow.
The next Bitcoin halving will take place in April 2024. As observations show, after halvings Bitcoin always updates its highs.
Reason 2. Perhaps the first ever spot Bitcoin ETF will finally be launched in 2024
An ETF allows you to invest in cryptocurrency not directly, but through a fund. It is legal even where digital assets are illegal.
Many in the crypto community believe that a spot Bitcoin ETF will make it easier for large investors to gain access to BTC. As a result, their money will pour into the crypto market, and this will support growth.
Bloomberg analysts believe that the first spot Bitcoin ETF will appear in the United States in January 2024. If you believe them, the active growth of BTC may begin in the first months of next year.
Reason 3. Binance’s conflict with US regulators has begun to be resolved
It's no secret that Binance is the largest crypto exchange on the market. According to Reuters, she came under the radar of American regulatory authorities in 2018. In November 2023, Binance finally reached an agreement with regulators under which it must leave the country, pay a $4 billion fine, and remove its CEO. Now Changpeng Zhao is considered a hero, and talk of a possible stock exchange collapse has ceased.
The crypto community has not yet healed the “wound” from the bankruptcy of what was once one of the largest crypto exchanges, FTX. It crashed in November 2022, sending the entire market to lows. Binance is bigger than FTX in its prime, so its collapse could be a huge blow. Resolving Binance’s conflict with several US regulators at once allowed everyone to breathe out.
Reason 4. The Fed may soon begin to lower its key interest rate
The key interest rate is the percentage at which the Central Bank lends money to banks. The higher the rate, the more expensive the loans and the higher the interest on deposits.
When the rate rises, it becomes more profitable not to spend, but to save: for example, give up a resort and instead put money at interest in the bank.
A reduction in the key rate works the other way around and increases purchasing activity. Money is starting to reach high-risk assets—cryptocurrencies.
Analysts' forecasts
1. BTC at $100,000 before halving, and after - growth to $700,000 within a year or two
The CEO of the blockchain technology company Blockstream, Adam Back, believes that investors will see Bitcoin at $100 thousand even before the halving. And then he does not rule out the growth of BTC to $700 thousand within a year or two. This forecast implies that Bitcoin will grow actively in 2024.
According to Adam Back, BTC will also be supported by investors who previously invested in gold. Seeing the effectiveness of BTC, they will begin to exchange the precious metal for cryptocurrency.
2. Growth with a goal of $150,000
The team of one of the largest asset management companies, Bernstein, which controls $676 billion in assets, believes that by January 2025, BTC will be worth $150 thousand. This forecast for Bitcoin also implies active growth next year.
Bernstein analysts believe that the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States will increase the attractiveness of the cryptocurrency. BTC will begin to be bought more often, and this will push the coin rate to a new high.
3. BTC at $125,000 by December 2024
Analysts at the crypto-financial platform Matrixport, with a monthly trading volume of $5 billion, believe that BTC will rise in price to $125 thousand by December 2024. Their Bitcoin forecast is based on the cyclical theory, which is based on halving
A decrease in the influx of new BTC into the market could allow Bitcoin to nearly triple. The halving coin itself will meet at $62 thousand.
4. $100,000 per Bitcoin at the end of 2024
The team at Standard Chartered Bank, which ranks 255th in the Forbes ranking of the largest companies, gave a less optimistic forecast. She believes that the maximum BTC for 2024 is $100 thousand per coin.
According to analysts, Bitcoin can meet the next New Year holidays at this level. The main driver of growth will be the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States.
5. $40-45,000 - no more
Analysts at the largest US bank JPMorgan consider forecasts for Bitcoin to exceed $100 thousand next year as too optimistic. In their opinion, BTC will meet the halving at $40 thousand, and during 2024 it could rise to $45 thousand.
The JPMorgan team explained this modest forecast by the limited potential of BTC, calculating growth by comparing the BTC rate with the movement of gold.
Should you buy Bitcoin now?
The history of observations suggests that BTC has every chance of growth. And many eminent analysts give a very positive forecast for the Bitcoin price in 2024. Probably, investments in BTC today can bring profit in the near future, but, of course, it is impossible to give an accurate forecast. There is no need to blindly believe even the most authoritative experts: conduct your own research and draw your own conclusions.
