The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, and Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference. On Friday, the U.S. will release non-farm payroll data, which may be the focus of whether the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates as expected in September. Economist Rubeela Farooqi believes that from the Fed's perspective, the data shows enough progress, and inflation and labor market conditions are enough for monetary policymakers to open the door to a rate cut in September at the interest rate meeting.

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The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) issued a guideline stating that stablecoin issuers operating in Switzerland pose risks to stablecoin holders and banks providing default guarantees. If a stablecoin issuer violates regulations, the bank providing default guarantees may suffer reputational damage due to its contractual relationship with the issuer and may face risks. Hong Kong government councillor Wu Jiezhuang said that BTC and Web3 are important nodes in the development of globalization, and global common development should be encouraged. In the future, BTC can be considered to be included in the reserves under compliance. I believe that the Hong Kong government will open the market responsibly and step by step. Google apologized for the loss of a large number of user passwords due to a Chrome password manager error. The problem started on July 24 and lasted for nearly 18 hours, affecting about 15 million Windows users using the M127 version of Chrome. On July 29, the Cryptocurrency Panic and Greed Index was 74 (71 yesterday), and the market greed sentiment hit a monthly high. Trade T reported that the Michigan Pension Fund bought $6.6 million of ARKB's BTC spot ETF in the second quarter. Valentin Fournier, chief analyst at BRN, said that mining companies appear to be buying BTC directly from the market to increase their reserves, and they triggered the long-term bullish indicator Hash Ribbon signal, indicating the end of miner capitulation and the increase in processing power used for mining. Howard Lutnick, CEO of Wall Street bond trading giant Cantor Fitzgerald, said at the BTC conference that his company holds a large amount of BTC and will launch a BTC financing business with an initial loan amount of $2 billion. Laser Digital, a cryptocurrency division of Nomura Securities, plans to launch an ETH ETF alternative by early September, open to so-called qualified investors such as hedge funds and private investment offices, rather than retail buyers. The University of Wyoming will establish the UW BTC Research Institute in August to provide high-quality peer-reviewed research on BTC. Bradley Rettler, an associate professor at the University of Wyoming, believes that the existing BTC research results are poor and emphasizes that the industry needs more high-quality peer-reviewed publications to ensure that the public properly understands what BTC is and how it works.

Santiment said that BTC has risen by 20% in 3 weeks, which makes the market more bullish than at the beginning of the month. BTC's weighted sentiment index has risen to its highest level since March 2023. The weighted sentiment index is an indicator that measures the number of BTC mentions on the x platform and compares the proportion of positive and negative comments. Speaking at the BTC 2024 conference, Trump said that BTC does not pose a threat to the US dollar. If elected, the United States will not sell (100% retention) any BTC. As the basis of BTC reserves, BTC and cryptocurrencies will promote US economic growth. On the first day after taking office, he will fire Gray Gensler, the current director of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and appoint a BTC/cryptocurrency advisory committee. On Monday, Bitcoin hit $70,000 again. After the US stock market opened in the evening, Grayscale continued to sell, and Bitcoin broke $67,000. Before the opening, the Grayscale address sent 108,825 ETH to CB, worth about $367 million. On July 30, the US government address moved some BTC again after nearly 4 months, distributing 29,800 BTC to two new addresses, 10,000 BTC and 19,800 BTC respectively. The US government address currently still holds 183,439 BTC, equivalent to about $12.35 billion. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart speculated that the transfer may be address consolidation to hold BTC in custody. On July 2, CB announced that the US Department of Justice (USMS) selected Coinbase Prime to provide custody and advanced trading services for its "class 1" (large assets) digital assets after a comprehensive process. Last week, digital asset investment products inflows of $245 million and BTC inflows of $519 million, bringing the inflows so far this month to $3.6 billion and the net inflows so far this year to a record $19 billion. Among them: BlackRock IBIT had a weekly net inflow of $758 million, and IBIT had a historical total net inflow of $19.73 billion; Fidelity FBTC had a weekly net inflow of $29.61 million, and FBTC had a historical total net inflow of $9.99 billion; Grayscale GBTC had a weekly net outflow of $120 million, and GBTC had a historical total net outflow of $18.81 billion. The ETH spot ETF attracted $1.183 billion in inflows in the first week, and the total net outflow after Grayscale was included was $338 million.

BlackRock ETHA inflows $453 million, Fidelity FETH inflows $224 million, Bitwise ETHW inflows $265 million, Grayscale ETH (mini trust) inflows $164 million, Grayscale ETHE outflows $1.513 billion. CoinGecko released the survey results of "How high will ETH rise in this cycle", the survey results are for reference only: 20.6% of the survey participants predicted that ETH will reach more than $10,000, 19.2% predicted that the peak will be at $5,000, and 33.7% predicted that the peak will be between $6,000 and $10,000. 10x Research said that BTC is expected to eventually break new highs, but it may need "macro" help, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on August 1 and the CPI report on August 14 will be crucial. Nick Timiraos, the "Fed mouthpiece", said that although Fed members are unlikely to cut interest rates this week, the development of inflation and the labor market should allow members to signal a rate cut at the September meeting. The Fed's readiness to cut rates reflects three factors: favorable inflation, a cooling job market, and a change in the dual risk of allowing inflation to remain at too high a level and causing unnecessary economic weakness. Powell, who prefers to act early, has been weighing the risks of cutting rates too early and waiting too long, a problem that will be resolved at this week's meeting. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, and Fed head Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference. On Friday, the U.S. will release non-farm payrolls data, which may be the focus of whether the Fed can cut interest rates as expected in September. The Fed's recent speeches show that it is increasingly confident in achieving its inflation target. Economist Rubeela Farooqi believes that from the Fed's perspective, the data shows enough progress, and inflation and labor market conditions are enough for monetary policymakers to open the door to a September rate cut at the interest rate meeting. The Federal Reserve will hold a meeting on Thursday, and the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls data will be released on Friday. As time goes by, macro factors will become more and more favorable. The market currently predicts that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 0%. The overall currency market is rebounding, but it is still affected by the sale of Grayscale ETH spot ETF. Grayscale ETHE has outflowed 17.3% in the past four trading days. If this outflow rate is maintained, it is expected to outflow 50% within 12 days (Grayscale GBTC outflowed 50% within 65 days).Bitcoin rebounded on Monday and hit $70,000. In the short term, Grayscale outflows, and in the long term, the Fed cuts interest rates. The Fed's interest rate meeting on Thursday may announce some positive news, and the bull market in the monetary easing cycle will continue to move forward. Grayscale ETHE will also have an inflow/outflow balance like GBTC. #比特币大会 #美联储何时降息？ #美国以太坊现货ETF开始交易