At the highly anticipated Bitcoin 2024 Summit on Sunday, US presidential candidate Trump delivered a speech as a heavyweight guest. Before the speech began, the market realized the expected positives in advance, pushing the price of Bitcoin to a high of 69,500, but after the official speech, the bulls soon realized that the probability of Trump's official announcement to add BTC to the US strategic reserve was not very high. He regarded this speech more as a presidential campaign campaign. The market also quickly gave up the previous gains due to the failure of expectations, causing a short-term decline. The options market also shorted volatility in large quantities during the meeting, causing the Vol Curve to quickly steepen downward.
Source: TradingView
Source: SignalPlus, ATM Vol
Although the market's biggest expectation (strategic reserve plan) has not come to fruition, Trump has continued his support for the crypto market, shouting slogans such as "Never sell your Bitcoin!" He also said that the first thing he would do on his first day in office was to fire the current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, "On day one I will fire Gary Gensler", and even said it twice. The bullish sentiment in the market began to ferment last night, with intraday volatility as high as ~ 3%, challenging the $70,000 mark all the way up, reaching a multi-week high. The front-end IV and Vol Skew also rose along with the price. The overall volatility level of BTC returned to above 55+%, and Vol Skew was around 3%.
In addition, there are other noteworthy points in BTC’s IV curve. First, the volatility level after the end of the year has been suppressed as a whole, and the term curve has become flat with 27 SEP 24 as the fulcrum. Second, the two expiration dates of 2 AUG and 8 NOV , implying a Forward IV of up to 63%/67.5%, which is significantly higher than other periods.
Source: Deribit (as of 29 JUL 16: 00 UTC+ 8)
Source: SignalPlus, 25 dRR
Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of ETH transactions
Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of BTC transactions
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
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