A few days ago, I saw a report saying that the five major state-owned banks (Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and Bank of Communications) collectively released the latest RMB deposit interest rate table, lowering the deposit interest rates of various terms. The one-year, two-year, three-year, and five-year deposit interest rates were reduced to 1.35%, 1.45%, 1.75%, and 1.8%, respectively. Compared with the previous interest rate standards, the one-year term deposit interest rate was reduced by 10 basis points, and the two-year, three-year, and five-year term deposits were reduced by 20 basis points, respectively. So far, the deposit interest rates of the six major banks have all bid farewell to the 2-digit.
According to this trend, it is estimated that all kinds of financial products will soon fall below the 2% interest rate, and even slowly enter the 1 era. On the one hand, about 2 million ordinary people monopolize most of the wealth, and on the other hand, they require the already somewhat miserable middle class and the vast majority of ordinary people who have little money to actively consume or bear more debt. We cannot comment too much on this topic.
But based on this issue, it can continue to give us some thoughts: geopolitical tensions are escalating, global inflation has not cooled down, the environment is deteriorating due to pollution, general commodities are overproduced, currencies are depreciating rapidly... There are still many uncertainties in the future. How should we better and wisely allocate assets?
1. Commodities
Generally speaking, fluctuations in commodity prices are not correlated with traditional asset classes such as stocks and bonds. The overall risk of the investment portfolio can be reduced by investing in commodities. At the same time, rising commodity prices can also help hedge against inflation risks, so it has become an option for many institutions/individuals.
Specifically in terms of investment ideas, we can look for opportunities in asymmetry.
So, what is asymmetry?
Here is a simple example: On the one hand, geopolitical frictions can lead to a reduction in crude oil production, which in turn can lead to a surge in global demand, which can lead to an increase in the prices of some commodities. On the other hand, the oversupply caused by soybean production can cause the prices of finished products such as soybean oil and soybean meal to fall further.
So, in this case, there will be some asymmetric edges for us to choose. For example, we can consider investing in some corresponding ETF products to look for long-term opportunities.
Of course, there may be many factors to consider in the specific investment process, such as the cyclical nature of commodities.
2. Stocks
Since I don't know much about our A, I won't say much. Here I will just use the US stock market as an example:
When choosing stocks, you should first consider your own risk tolerance, your goals, and your time frame, and then the issue of specific position allocation.
For example, let's take the S&P500. In the long run, we still think it is a good choice. Of course, if you consider further diversification and higher risk (which also means higher potential return opportunities), you can also consider paying attention to some individual stocks or other indices, such as Invesco QQQ (focuses on investing in technology and high-growth stocks), MSCI SWDA (focuses on all the largest companies in the world), MSCI XMMS (focuses on the Asian market), etc.
As for the field, since many countries and regions in the world are looking for a "green" development path, coupled with the problem of global population change, biology and sustainable agriculture (smart agriculture) may be the focus of attention in the next decade.
3. Invest in yourself
In reality, most people have a dream of freedom and wealth, but more than 90% of people cannot realize their dreams and freedom. The core logic here is: almost all people who successfully realize their dreams are often value generators, not consumers. If you just pursue the so-called dream with a consumer mentality, it will be difficult to succeed.
Only when you realize how much you are worth, you will truly realize how much money you can make.
If you rush around every day for a specific job, earning 5,000 yuan a month, and most of your time and energy are numbly invested in this job (without summarizing or describing any effective methodology), and the rest of the time is either lying down and browsing your phone or sitting and playing games (that is, spending your own time), then it seems that the money you can earn is only this 5,000 yuan.
But if you can leverage your best skills to serve more people and use a digital presence (network) to support that service, then over time you could potentially make an additional $5,000, $10,000, or even more per month on top of what you already have.
The future is definitely a fully digital world, where a person will be able to cover more areas and create more value through their services through lower costs and more flexible scalability (this process is also accompanied by financial opportunities).
Of course, everyone has their own destiny and ambition. If you have seen and heard a lot in your past life, but still think you have no skills at all and are unwilling to invest time and energy in learning, and have accepted your fate, then just keep living and try to be happy.
Otherwise, you need to know how to invest in yourself, don’t miss the opportunity to digitize your skills, don’t be impetuous and stay patient. Just think about those people you see making money by providing (sharing) content that is useful or useless to you. Do you really think you are worse than them? Do you really think you are less valuable than them?
Although this paragraph seems to be a bit of chicken soup, it is also my true thought. Of course, the above paragraph is only a basic idea and thought. As for what you can do specifically, I don’t know. This requires you to think about it in combination with your own situation and skills. For example, I personally pay more attention to the field of encryption, and I also invest in this field. At the same time, I also like to use my spare time to write something, so I created a content platform called "Hua Li Hua Wai". So far, I have persisted for more than 2 years without realizing it. At the same time, based on Hua Li Hua Wai, I have also published two e-books, "Blockchain Thinking Advanced" and "Blockchain Methodology".
4. Cash flow
But whether you are investing in commodities, U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, or any other form of investment (such as depositing money in the bank to earn interest, buying a house, insurance, trust, bonds, precious metals, doing physical business, etc.), another key point of asset management is not to let your liquidity dry up. In simple terms, you should not go all-in and keep a certain amount of cash. Because any investment product is cyclical, when you encounter market adjustments or a bear market, flexible cash flow will give you the opportunity to capture more possibilities and opportunities.
Moreover, while diversifying your investments, don’t spread them too thin. After all, everyone’s time and energy are limited, and you can’t focus on all areas at the same time. Similarly, you can’t research multiple areas (including multiple tracks in the same area) at the same time. You just need to grasp the industries that are most profitable for you (using your existing skills), and then continue to dig deep into them, and make sure you can stay ahead of most other ordinary people.
On the other hand, investment should also be separated from real life. You should leave enough cash for yourself (or your family) to deal with unknown situations. Just as the short-term market is unpredictable, you can never predict what will happen in your future life.
In short, in the current environment, as ordinary individuals, what we can do is to wisely allocate assets (reasonable position management and investment strategies), quietly do everything we do (digitize our skills), and then stay healthy and live a peaceful life.
5. Cryptocurrency
In the above investment aspects, we only mentioned commodities and stocks, etc. Why didn’t we mention cryptocurrencies?
First of all, our nearly 500 articles in the past have all been about sharing topics and knowledge in the field of encryption, so whether we are optimistic about this field is self-evident to us. If you have read all the articles of Hualihuawai in the past, then you will naturally know what I am talking about and what I want to say. Otherwise, even if I say too much here, it will be futile and meaningless to you.
Secondly, due to regulatory issues, the encryption field currently faces many problems and various risks, and even faces questions such as whether it is legal in some countries. Therefore, I do not recommend that you rush into investing in this field without knowing anything.
For many newcomers, the crypto field seems to be equal to cryptocurrency speculation, but in fact, in addition to cryptocurrency speculation, you can also find many ideas and methods to make money in this field, which you need to slowly understand and explore. In addition, there are currently many crypto-related media/self-media, various on-chain data tools, etc. to assist you in your research in this field.
In the past two days, the most popular topic should be the Bitcoin Conference. The conference has attracted much attention because it invited 10 American political guests including Trump, of whom 8 are Republicans, only one is a Democrat, and there is one independent. Today (Beijing time at 3 am on the 28th) Trump also gave a speech at the Bitcoin Conference. The full content of Trump's speech can be searched on the Internet. Interested friends can search it on Google. As shown in the figure below.
In the previous article of Hualihuawai (July 26), we mainly sorted out the top 20 tools for playing with MemeCoin. Then a friend left a message saying: Is there no other track worth paying attention to besides MemeCoin?
Regarding this question, of course there are. In the previous articles, I have sorted out many articles related to track topics. However, if it comes to short-term hype opportunities, then MemeCoin is definitely the first to bear the brunt. But if we look at it from a medium- to long-term perspective, then other tracks (corresponding to some projects under the track) will definitely have opportunities.
I remember that in an article about track summary last year (February 17, 2023), we sorted out 23 narratives worth paying attention to in the next two years (ie 2024-2025), as shown in the figure below.
Because when we sorted it out, many new concepts had not yet appeared (such as the later BRC20, etc.). In the past year and a half, we have officially ushered in a new round of bull market, and the market sentiment and macro environment have changed a lot. In the next six months to a year, macroeconomic factors and the continued adoption of institutions will play a crucial role in shaping the cryptocurrency story.
For example, in terms of macroeconomics: After two consecutive years of record high interest rates, the probability of the first interest rate cut in September this year has become increasingly high based on comprehensive data and indicators. At the same time, the US presidential election in November this year seems to be considered by many to have a significant impact on the crypto market.
Another example is institutional adoption: following the approval of the spot BTC ETF (mainly in the United States, the Hong Kong ETF currently has little impact), this month (July) the SEC approved the listing of multiple spot ETH ETFs, continuing to lay the foundation for the development of ETFs. With the continued entry of institutions, in the near future, we may see some institutions explore DeFi, infrastructure, AI and consumer applications in the crypto field more deeply. By then, as ordinary retail investors, we may also need to make some new changes or optimizations in our investment methods and strategies in the future.
In this issue, we will combine the current situation and briefly sort out the 10 major narratives that are worth paying attention to in the next (2024-2025) (the following ranking is in no particular order):
The first one is RWA (Real-world Assets)
In the article in February last year (2023), we only made a simple speculation based on the development of MakerDAO and predicted that the RWA field might usher in a round of explosion points.
Over the past period of time, many RWA projects have developed well due to the support of institutions such as BlackRock. Although the market may officially usher in a US dollar interest rate cut this year, the expectation of a rate cut already exists. We expect that even if the rate cut occurs (and the rate cut will be slow), there will not be much change in the short term, so some risk-weighted assets will continue to benefit from relatively high interest rates.
Therefore, in this overall context, the RWA field is likely to continue to maintain good development in the future. For example, tokenization projects such as Ondo and Maker, loan business projects such as Maple, as well as infrastructure projects that are related to RWA (such as Chainlink, Pyth, etc.) and interoperability projects (such as LayerZero, Wormhole, etc.) can all be paid proper attention to.
The second one is GameFi
In the last bull market, the popularity of Axie Infinity led to the overall rise of GameFi, but for a long time, the popularity of GameFi did not seem to have the explosive collective growth we expected. In terms of Web3 Games, the most popular ones recently should be some games on TON. Although I haven’t paid much attention to them, it seems that many friends are trying various telegram games.
Although I am not a game enthusiast and I don’t play any games (mainly because I don’t have the time and energy to play games), I can still feel that Web3 Games seem to be emerging in various types, and some games have become popular because of the transition from Play to Earn to Tap to Earn. For example, Notcoin, a more representative project in T2E, allows players to earn tokens through simple clicks, and also adds social sharing and invitation reward mechanisms, which improves user stickiness and dissemination speed, and is also suitable for playing in fragmented time.
For example, there are projects that seem to have good game design, such as Parallel, Pixels, SHRAPNEL, Pirate Nation, etc. These casual games can also be paid proper attention.
In short, simple gameplay, sustainable in-game economy, and fully on-chain games will be the next big leap for Web3 Games. Moreover, there should be diversified X to Earn models or expansions in the future, not limited to Play to Earn, Tap to Earn, Move to Earn, etc. At the same time, with the development of blockchain technology, chain games will definitely integrate more emerging technologies, such as virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), and artificial intelligence (AI), to provide a more immersive and intelligent gaming experience.
Games are a huge market, and the Web3 gaming industry has a promising future.
...This article is to be continued, and we will supplement and update the remaining content through Huali Huawai.
This is where we share the content for this issue. This is also the 492nd article updated by Hualihuawai.
