Bitcoin continued to grow during the week; a local maximum of 69399 was reached yesterday. And this despite the fact that stock indices were falling, mt.GOX was moving and giving away Bitcoins, and Grayscale was actively draining Ethers.
Trump spoke at the conference yesterday, and spoke with maximum positivity. He promised to make the US the crypto capital of the planet and the world's Bitcoin superpower. Never sell BTC on the US balance sheet, and also create a strategic national reserve of Bitcoin (that is, buy more).
He also stated that the capitalization of Bitcoin will definitely exceed the capitalization of gold (the capitalization of gold is now 8 trillion).
And most importantly, he promised to fire Gensler on the very first day of his presidency.
This is all good, of course. But the market, firstly, was waiting for something more concrete. And in terms of specifics, only Gensler was).
Secondly, Trump is only a presidential candidate. And ahead is the fight against an enemy who has a large media resource on his side, and most importantly, who has the ability to falsify the results. Therefore, the struggle will not be easy, and the result will be unpredictable. Trump and the healthy forces need to not only win, but also defend their victory. This is possible, but not guaranteed. Therefore, the markets will shake considerably.
Bitcoin fell to 66600 after Trump's speech, but then returned above 67K, and has been moving in the range of 67300-68150 for the last few hours.
Fall factors for next week.
1. Fall of the stock market. Which could be triggered by reports from tech giants that didn’t live up to expectations, or geopolitics, or the Fed’s tough rhetoric at the July 31 meeting.
2. The emergence of a new FUDa for draining Bitcoin (for example, the government of England). Here is the drain of Bitcoins from Genesis.
3. Domestic political turmoil in the United States, which will reduce the likelihood of regular elections and Trump’s victory.
Growth factors next week.
1. We haven’t reached the upper limit of the range (70-72K) yet. According to the logic of market movement, if nothing extreme happens, they should get there. Or maybe not only reach, but finally go above 72K with the prospect of a new ATH
2. Increasing short positions. Everyone expects Bitcoin to go down from levels 7-72K, as it has already happened 5 times since March 2024.
But this time it may be different.
Firstly, the longer we are in the range, the less time is left before we exit it. How it works.
Secondly, the general situation indicates the inevitability of medium-term growth. The second half of 2024 has already begun, and it’s time to implement the forecast for the year.
3. Possible positive rhetoric from the Fed on July 31, which will be good for all markets.
Let's see how the markets open. And we act according to plan.
Some people have a question: shouldn’t they now sell what they bought earlier at breakeven or at a small plus?
After all, there has been no real growth for a long time; what if everything collapses again now?
I won't do that. I think this is not rational. It’s like running a marathon and then sitting down to rest 5KM before the finish. And come to the finish line in the last rows, or not come at all.
If the deal has already been in place for several months, and the market picture is the same as it is now, you need to wait for the goal and get the result. Otherwise, why did all this happen at all?
This is how we act.
