Today's PCE data has slowed down. Let me briefly talk about the US economy. This is just my personal opinion.
Because the macroeconomic situation was not the focus of the market in the early stage, there is no need to pay too much attention to it. However, the Fed still summarizes the outlook before the July meeting:
1. The interest rate will be cut twice this year. But the solution to inflation will not be achieved in one go, and the speed of interest rate cuts next year is questionable.
2. The economic fundamentals are mild and the landing is soft.
3. The issuance of long-term bonds in the United States is difficult to control, and long-term interest rates will ignore the interest rate cuts and remain high for a long time.
4. Asset differentiation: bad for liquid assets, good for profitable companies.
5. The profits of large companies in 24 years can continue to be amazing, but at some point in 25 years, they will not be able to match the increasingly high expectations.
6. At that time, the market needs to truly "reset" the mindless gains since last year.
And this process will not be as fast as the two adjustments this year, and it will take time. There will definitely be a tightening of US dollar liquidity, and then it will be liquid assets and marginal assets that will fall more. Except for BTC, most coins should be 5-10% of the current price
7. Whether the Fed will pay for the stock market depends on inflation: there are too many inflation factors, such as immigration, Sino-US trade, etc. Overall, it depends on the attitudes of the two parties. Republicans have high inflation and Democrats have chaotic countries
