The fact that Bitcoin futures open positions remain stable indicates that price increases may be limited or a more sustainable growth process.
Although the Bitcoin price increased by approximately 25% from $54,000 to $67,000 in the last two weeks, total open positions remained stable at $29 billion. This shows that investors are taking a cautious approach despite price fluctuations. On July 4, when prices fell more than 5%, open interest peaked at $40 billion.
Bitcoin futures trading volume remains steady at around $1.5 trillion monthly. Generally, high open interest levels and significant price increases are considered signals of excessive optimism in the market. However, in the current situation, open positions remaining stable and limited price increases indicate a more cautious market sentiment.
There are several possible reasons behind this situation. Investors may want to avoid pushing the market aggressively higher after the recent price decline. Additionally, concerns that the upcoming US presidential election could lead to regulatory changes may also be at play.
Effect on Price
The fact that Bitcoin futures open positions remain stable and although the price increases, this increase remains limited shows that the market has adopted a cautious approach. Often when high open interest levels and price increases are seen together, this can be perceived as excessive optimism. However, the fact that open positions currently remain stable reveals that investors' expectations that prices will increase further are limited.
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