Bull Market Insight 3: How high can BTC rise in this bull market?
This article is the result of my observation and thinking about the historical cycle of BTC for several years. I hope it can help all friends who see this article.
#BTChas experienced four complete bull-bear cycles since its birth:
The first cycle: July 2010 to November 2011
The second cycle: November 2011 to August 2015
The third cycle: August 2015 to March 2020
The fourth cycle: March 2020 to November 2022
The fifth cycle: November 2022 to present
In the first cycle, the crypto market was just in its infancy and the market value of BTC was very small, so the market developed very quickly and the cycle was short. The second and third cycles generally follow the pattern of "two years of upward trend, one year of downward trend, and one year of bottom oscillation". A complete cycle takes about four years.
In the fourth cycle, due to the shock after the FTX crash in November 2022, the bottom chips interacted more fully, and the subsequent ETF factors affected it, so there was no second bottoming in the bear market in this cycle, and the time span was shorter.
The fifth cycle has been running for 20 months so far, and more than half of this round of BTC bull market cycle has passed.
One question that many investors are more concerned about is where BTC will rise in this round of bull market. The following article will use the price change rate and second-order change rate between the peak prices of the bull market that I found to estimate the peak price of BTC in this round of bull market.
