VanEck, an asset manager, predicts that Bitcoin’s price may reach $2.9 million by 2050, assuming high hurdles are cleared. The report suggests that Bitcoin will become an essential part of the international monetary system in the next few decades due to rising geopolitical tensions and ballooning debt servicing costs.
Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, believes that many of these distortions stem from a massive misallocation of capital since the global financial crisis. Bitcoin is seen as the ultimate hedge against rising fiscal recklessness.
In the base case scenario, Bitcoin would become a key medium of exchange in local and global trade, representing 10% of international trade settlement and 5% of GDP. It would also gain as a global reserve asset at the expense of the four largest foreign reserve currencies, reaching a 2.5% weight in international currency reserves.
If the report is accurate, Bitcoin’s price will increase by 44 times, gaining 16% annually from its current price of just below $65,000. Its market capitalization would soar to $61 trillion. The proliferation of layer-2 networks will play a key role in overcoming the Bitcoin blockchain’s bottlenecks and scaling issues, with the sector potentially worth $7.6 trillion by 2050.
VanEck warns about potential risks that could stifle Bitcoin’s expansion, including increasing energy demand by miners, revenue from processing transactions, and concerted efforts by governments to restrict or outlaw Bitcoin.
