The past 24 hours have been a V-reversal day.

I don't know why, but it's pretty hard.

Especially after the end of the US stock trading, Bitcoin rose, driving the entire cryptocurrency market to rebound. Bitcoin did not flow in too much on the ETF side. Only 30 million. I think sometimes we cannot be completely trapped in the fog of ETF inflows and outflows. Inflows and outflows can change at any time. We should observe long-term data rather than short-term data. We cannot think that the ETF inflows pulled up the market just because 30 million US dollars flowed in yesterday. This logic is still a bit far-fetched. Because it cannot explain why Bitcoin was still adjusting despite the net inflow of several hundred million US dollars in the past two days. After all, the market is not controlled by a single factor. In the long run, the data of Bitcoin ETF is still very good. In more than six months, there was a net inflow of 17.5 billion US dollars. Bitcoin rose more and fell less, and ETFs have contributed greatly.

I watched cryptocurrencies and US stocks for a while at night. It is obvious that during the trading hours of US stocks, Bitcoin and QQ are highly correlated with US stocks. When US stocks rise, these two will rise, and when US stocks fall, these two will fall, and this is true for cryptocurrencies as a whole. Last night, the US stock market fluctuated greatly. The Nasdaq fell sharply, rebounded sharply, and then fell again. It had already led cryptocurrencies to continue to fall, but after the US stock market closed, Bitcoin continued to rise in the early morning and during the day, reversing the downward trend.

$ETH also benefited from it.

Yesterday, the ETH spot ETF continued to have a net outflow of more than 100 million US dollars, but the price did not fall that much, but it was still very miserable. Grayscale sold too quickly. 1.15 billion US dollars in three days, it was really fierce. Fortunately, there was a big brother to help, so it was not too ugly. Hold on, Grayscale should be almost gone next week, and the speed will slow down. The risks on the US stock market are constantly being digested, and cryptocurrencies have held up. It is not worse than at the beginning of the month, which is pretty good.

Yesterday, the macroeconomic data on GDP was released, and it was pretty good. Good economic data is a good thing, because it reduces the probability of a hard landing. It will also reduce the possibility of a recession in market transactions. As the interest rate cut approaches, the US seems to be really going to have a soft landing. Now the possibility of a rate cut in September is very high, and futures data show that the probability of no rate cut in September is 0. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 87.7%, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 11.9%, and there is even a probability of a 75 basis point rate cut, although it is very low, at 0.4%. The market expects that the probability of a 75 basis point rate cut this year is more than 60%, which is 61%. The interest rate cut and the liquidity brought about by the interest rate cut are both slow dishes, so wait and taste them slowly. If there is no black swan or economic crisis, it will be very good.