Bitcoin and global stock markets are going in opposite directions, and Trump's support is a key turning point
Bitcoin and global stock markets are experiencing an unprecedented drama of differentiation, and Donald Trump's campaign and support for cryptocurrencies have unexpectedly become the driving force behind this drama. According to Bloomberg data, the 30-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the MSCI Global Stock Index has rarely slipped to negative 0.20, marking a clear divergence between the two trends. In the past month, Bitcoin has soared by about 11%, while global stock markets have risen by less than 2%, in sharp contrast.
Trump's campaign momentum is closely intertwined with the gold in the cryptocurrency industry, which has injected strong momentum into Bitcoin. Although he was once a critic of cryptocurrency, his change of position and high popularity within the Republican Party have given the market hope that the US regulatory environment may tilt towards Bitcoin. At the same time, global stock markets have become more volatile due to the uncertain outlook for corporate earnings, and the S&P 500 index suffered a heavy blow on Wednesday, reflecting investors' cautious sentiment.
Traders point out that Bitcoin has become a potential vane for Trump's victory, while the stock market has not shown the same clear winner or loser trend. As Biden gives up reelection, Vice President Kamala Harris becomes Trump's potential Democratic opponent, but her attitude towards digital assets is still unclear, adding more uncertainty to the market.
Trump will appear at the Bitcoin conference on July 27, and his remarks may further stir up the market. At the same time, global stock markets are entering the earnings season, and investors are paying close attention to whether AI and technology companies can continue their gains and bring new vitality to the stock market. Against this background, Bitcoin's independent market has undoubtedly added a unique landscape to the global financial market.
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