Yesterday, the US stock market plummeted. Affected by the financial reports released by Tesla and Alphabet, the S&P 500 index fell by more than 2%, and the Nasdaq index also fell by 3.64%. On the second day of the listing of the Ethereum spot ETF, the market plunged, and ETH fell by more than 4% in 24 hours, much higher than BTC's -0.87%.

The probability of a rate cut in September is expected to reach 100%

According to CNBC, the initial reading of the U.S. PMI manufacturing output index fell to 49.5 in July, unexpectedly slipping into contraction territory due to declines in new orders, production and inventories. Economists had previously predicted a reading of 51.5. A report on Wednesday also showed that new home sales in June were lower than economists expected.

Investors are looking forward to the U.S. second-quarter GDP report on Thursday and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data for June on Friday for clues on the Federal Reserve's path to rate cuts.

The Federal Reserve will hold an FOMC meeting at the end of the month. According to the CME FedWatch Index, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in July, but the probability of a rate cut in September has reached 100%.

Let's talk about the current market situation. The rise some time ago was fueled by Trump. Since the launch of the Ethereum ETF, it has basically been a correction. The basic reason is due to macro factors. Because Biden withdrew from the election, Harris is Biden's successor. The more bizarre thing is that Harris rejects BTC, while Trump supports BTC. Harris is younger and his support rate has surpassed Trump, so this led to the previous rise in BTC fueled by Trump, and now it has fallen back.

Next, we are looking forward to Trump’s provocative remarks at the BTC conference on the 27th to influence the market.

The second factor is that the online management fee of ETFs is relatively low compared to Grayscale’s handling fee, so for those who manage user funds in Grayscale, they will choose to sell and re-buy ETFs, because when users choose Grayscale before, they have to lock the amount for 2-3 years. Now that the time is up, users will basically choose to change the management of funds. The power of this batch of selling orders is likely to be heavier than the buying power of ETFs.

Regarding the interest rate cut, the September rate cut is already above 80%, so the time for loosening monetary policy is approaching.

Looking at the Mentougou incident, Mentougou has paid out 18,000 people's BTC and BCH by the target, but has not yet paid out all the compensation. The remaining compensation requires identity verification before it can be paid out. The emotional selling pressure in Mentougou has not ended. In fact, few people choose to sell the BTC and BCH that have been compensated. I personally think that the emotional impact is greater.

Regarding the market, one good thing after another has landed, but the price just won't go up. The fundamental reason is still stuck in the macro and Mentougou sentiment. There is an interest rate cut in September, but there is no movement in the market. It is conceivable that the result of this election is very important. Big investors and institutions dare not move while supporting BTC◇ and rejecting BTC◇, so hold the spot at this stage.

In addition to BTC, what other coins are worth paying attention to in this round?

It is not difficult to choose a coin, but even if you choose the right one, you may not make a lot of money. In fact, it is a system problem. The essence is what you want to make.

1. Coins with solid consensus: BTC, ETH, SOL, TON are making big moves!

2. Copycat leaders: pepe, wif, rndr, ondo (price is the biggest fundamental, unlike the previous round where it was value. See if the K-line is strong enough)

3. Earn money from emotions (high returns and high risks), big capital drives big trends, brc20, ton, solana blink. Whether the market can continue depends on whether the capital exerts its strength. If they don't pay attention, it will be difficult.

4. Big names calling for orders, Musk, Solana, etc.

Why do people think that the market is good but it is difficult to make money? Because it requires the right time, right place and right people. It takes 3 days to get 1b. If it takes a long time, it may not last long. Most people want to make 100 times, but it is quite difficult. If it is 2 10*10, it will be easier.

Unity of knowledge and action:

The difficulty lies in execution (there is no absolute method, try small to win big, develop a sense of the Internet, and don’t be afraid of trial and error. Don’t wait and see, otherwise you won’t be able to operate when you get the opportunity)

Position Management

Make a trading plan in advance:

Take profit and stop loss, a certain threshold is the degree of market consensus, think about when to take profit and stop loss in advance.

Strongly bullish in August and September, I will prioritize the above-mentioned alts for bottom-fishing, and wait patiently until the end of September to see if the interest rate cut will be a positive. Reduce positions.