Written in front
The 2024 US presidential election has become a global focus, and former President Donald Trump's re-election has attracted great attention from the cryptocurrency market. Although Trump was negative about cryptocurrencies during his first presidency, he recently accepted cryptocurrency donations and publicly supported the development of Bitcoin, showing a clear change in attitude. Trump is about to attend the 2024 Bitcoin Conference, and the subsequent news that Kamala Harris will speak at the conference has further raised the market's expectations for the conference. This article will take this conference as a starting point to discuss this [election maze] with everyone.
2024 Bitcoin Conference - A Show for Politicians to Make Money
The Bitcoin Conference will be held in Nashville, Tennessee from July 25 to 27. Former President Trump has confirmed that he will attend, which has increased the market's attention to the conference and indicates that the conference may have a relevant impact on the crypto market. His policy propositions and public support for the development of Bitcoin, policies to reduce regulation and promote economic growth may bring more investment opportunities to the crypto market, further enhance market confidence, and promote the development of the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency industry. The high intensity of the topic itself may trigger the emergence of new memes.
In addition to Trump, who is the most watched, the CEO of Micro Strategy and the founder of ARK Invest, "Wood Sister", will also attend the conference and give a speech. MicroStrategy is one of the world's largest corporate Bitcoin holders. As of June 2024, its holdings have reached 226,331 BTC, with a market value of approximately US$1.514 billion. As one of the issuers of the Bitcoin spot ETF, ARK Invest needs to clearly express its long-term optimism and positive predictions about Bitcoin to attract more traditional investors to enter the crypto market.
The technical presentation this time may attract more investors' attention to the ecological construction of Bitcoin. The conference will showcase and discuss many technological innovations, especially in the lightning network, smart contracts and zero-knowledge proof technology. These technological advances may have a positive impact on the crypto market, improve the practicality and security of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and promote their application in more business and daily life. Among them, the participation of Casey, the creator of Ordinals and Runes protocols, may trigger the revitalization of meme projects related to the Runes protocol.
The relatively clear situation was broken by a piece of news on the 24th:
On the 24th, The Kobeissi Letter Official The poll, which shows Harris currently leads Trump in the presidential race by two percentage points (44% vs. 42%), was conducted in July and covered 1,241 U.S. adults, including 1,018 registered voters, and was collected through an online survey. , has certain representativeness, but also has limitations.
Comparing the support rate data in RealClearPolling, Trump is still ahead of Harris by about 1.6 percentage points. From the comparison of multiple data, it can be found that the support rates of both parties are in a relatively stalemate. If Harris confirms to attend this Bitcoin conference, it is worth thinking about whether the relatively one-sided balance in the crypto market will tilt.
Economic support behind the election
Whether it is Trump or Harris, you and I in the market do not really believe that these two parties really recognize POW, reach a consensus with the crypto market, and want to build a "decentralized" world system for everyone. Capitalist politicians talk about supporting "decentralization", which sounds very ironic and comedic. But as long as the interests are the same and the direction is consistent, everyone can cooperate and win.
Therefore, if Trump runs for re-election, it will be found that the funds for his political campaign have obvious support from the crypto market, represented first by important figures in Silicon Valley such as Elon Musk, PayPal co-founder Kenneth Howery, venture capitalists Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, etc.
Why Silicon Valley capitalists support Trump
1. Economic Benefits
Trump's tax cuts and business-friendly stance have enabled Silicon Valley capitalists to enjoy more economic benefits. For example, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed in 2017 significantly reduced the corporate tax rate, allowing technology companies to receive significant tax breaks. According to the latest data, during the Trump administration, the U.S. corporate income tax dropped from 35% to 21%, directly boosting the profit margins of Silicon Valley technology companies.
2. Policy orientation
Many entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley support a free market and an innovative environment, and tend to reduce government intervention in technology and innovation industries. Trump's policy propositions are highly consistent with this. For example, he signed the Artificial Intelligence Initiative in 2020 to promote the development of AI technology and reduce regulation of emerging technologies. In addition, Trump's relaxed attitude towards mergers and acquisitions of large technology companies also provides more freedom for capital operations in Silicon Valley.
3. Financial market stability
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023 has caused a major shock to technology companies and the venture capital (VC) market. Trump's promised policies of reducing regulation and promoting economic growth may help restore market confidence and stabilize financial markets. The collapse of SVB shows that technology companies are highly dependent on financial infrastructure and need policy support to ensure market stability and continued development.
4. Technology development support
During his campaign, Trump said he would support the development of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which is consistent with the interests of Silicon Valley capitalists. Many companies and investors in Silicon Valley believe that cryptocurrency and blockchain technology represent future financial innovations and hope to promote the popularization and application of these technologies through policy support. For example, a16z's investment in cryptocurrency and blockchain projects reached $2 billion in 2023, showing its high attention to this field.
Harris's current campaign funds come from personal donations and transfers from other committees. She has performed well in multiple fundraising events, raising $1.25 million at an LGBTQ party in New York City, the highest fundraising amount in the history of the event. If Harris confirms to attend the Bitcoin conference this time, it is possible that she will canvass for votes with Trump at the conference and directly ask for money and election support. However, from the comments on the tweet announcing Harris's possible attendance at the Bitcoin conference, it can be seen that most crypto market users have been disappointed with Harris and Biden's three-year history of hunting down Biden, and directly pointed out that the purpose of Harris's trip is "vote grab".
Should we really trust Trump?
Although Trump’s current inclinations and remarks are crypto-friendly, he himself has a strong aura of businessman attributes, and all his actions and remarks are based on his own interests. Therefore, from a risk perspective, we need to guard against the possibility of policy black swans and evaluate the reality of the fulfillment of his promises.
1. Cashing out risk
For reference, we can review the fulfillment of Trump's promises during his term. According to Politifact.com, during the 2016 campaign, 55% of the 100 promises made by Trump were never fulfilled, 22% were fulfilled after compromise, and only 23% were successfully fulfilled.
Trump-O-Meter（Source：PolitiFact）
Another reference is Trump’s remarks this year. As of now (July 22, 2024), he has made a total of 1,029 remarks/comments (not all of which are promises), of which only 36 (3%) are true, 85 (8%) are mostly true, and the remaining 908 are half-true and half-false or less, and errors and absurd (Pants on Fire) account for 56%.
Donald Trump’s Election Comments 2024.7.22（Source：PolitiFact）
In contrast, only 22% of the remarks made by current US President Joe Biden, who has officially announced his withdrawal from the election, were wrong and absurd:
Joe Biden’s Election Comments 2024.7.22（Source：PolitiFact）
And Democratic candidate Kamala Harris's 19% false claims:
Kamala Harris’s Election Comments 2024.7.22（Source：PolitiFact）
Biden and Harris made significantly fewer remarks than Trump in this election, and their remarks were relatively more "accurate". Moreover, Trump's remarks were numerous and extreme, and his "wrong" and "absurd" remarks accounted for more than half of all the candidates' remarks:
670 false statements, 392 for Trump;
315 ridiculous statements, 192 for Trump.
Total Election Comments 2024.7.22（Source：PolitiFact）
Considering the fulfillment of Trump's promises during his previous term, even though his coming to power is a major boon to the crypto market and he promised a relaxed crypto regulatory environment, we still cannot be blindly optimistic and must pay attention to the fulfillment of his promises after his possible victory. (The above data comparison is intended to illustrate that Trump's rhetoric strategy during the campaign is more radical, not to exaggerate that the Democratic candidate is more credible and excellent.)
2. Attitude risk
Trump publicly commented on BTC during his tenure in 2019: "I am not a fan of BTC and cryptocurrencies. These things are not money. Their value is based on air."
Trump on Bitcoin & Cryptocurrencies 2019.7.12（Source：X）
In 2021, he called “BTC a scam and a threat to all mainstream currencies”:
Donald Trump calls Bitcoin ‘a scam against the dollar’（Source：BBC）
In March of this year, he publicly stated: "If re-elected president, his administration will not crack down on the use of Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies through regulatory agencies."
Trump suggests he would not crack down on bitcoin, other cryptocurrencies as president（Source：CNBC）
“I will make sure that the history of cryptocurrency and the history of Bitcoin will be made in my country and not driven overseas,” he said in May.
Trump: I will ensure crypto history is made in US（Source：Baha Breaking News）
In this election, Trump made a U-turn in his attitude and chose to embrace cryptocurrency. His promise of benefits is inseparable from his motive to win votes from the crypto community. Although the probability may not be too high, once he chooses to go back on his word/kill his vote after taking office, it may be a heavy blow to the crypto market, and all his promises will be impossible to fulfill.
3. Other risks
Centralization risk: The United States holds the largest amount of BTC in the world. In addition, Trump may declare BTC a national strategic reserve asset. According to his usual strong style, there is a risk that BTC or the crypto market will gradually become US-ized in the future.
Risk of losing the election: Although Trump's approval rating may be higher than that of the new Democratic main candidate Harris, there is also a risk of losing the election. The latter has not yet publicly stated her attitude towards cryptocurrencies. It is currently known that she and her husband Douglas Emhoff have never been involved in the crypto field and are traditional financial investors. If Harris is elected, her attitude towards the crypto market will also be crucial.
On-chain support rate (Source: PolyMarket)
Market fluctuation risk: In view of the recent frequent market fluctuations, even if the positive factors are relatively obvious at present, there is also the possibility that unexpected news may be negative, causing panic selling in the market again before and after the main rise of the bull market.
summary
Trump's re-election and his embrace of the crypto market this time have brought more possibilities and volatility to the market. His policy changes and support may attract more investors to enter the market and drive market growth.
From expressing that he would not allow the creation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in the United States in early January 2024 to participating in the NFT fundraising dinner on May 8 and announcing that supporters could donate using cryptocurrency, reaffirming that he would become the "crypto president", all of these have had a certain impact on the price of BTC in a short period of time. This high-profile attendance at the Bitcoin conference has been brewing for some time, and with the superposition of multiple market factors, the actual role and performance will be revealed in time, and Harris's participation has brought the entire conference to a higher level of attention. But even if Trump or Harris, who superficially embrace Bitcoin, comes to power, whether there will be repeated behavior of "fatten the sheep and then kill them" is also a problem that everyone is worried about.
Future Reports (Not Yet Completed): WolfDAO will continue to conduct in-depth analysis of the US election and its impact on the crypto market, especially related specific projects to participate in. Please look forward to further detailed reports.
供程：Sylvia / Cage / Nora / Riffi / Mat / Darl
Editing and proofreading: Punko
Special thanks: Thanks to the above partners for their outstanding contributions to this issue.
