There have been a lot of explosive news in the macroeconomics recently, especially Biden's withdrawal from the election and Trump's declining approval rating. These events have exacerbated the market's anxiety and concerns about the future direction of economic policies.

According to CME data, the market's expectations for a rate cut in September are relatively high, with the probability of a rate cut being about 91%. However, due to the uncertainty of the US presidential election in November, the market's expectations for a rate cut in November have become more uncertain.

As for the FOMC interest rate decision on July 31, the market generally expects the Fed not to cut interest rates in July, with an estimated probability of no rate cut of 95.3%. This high probability expectation usually means that the market has a high consensus on this result, believing that the Fed will maintain the current interest rate level unchanged at the July meeting.