Although non-agricultural data has less and less impact on the encryption market, it is still worthy of attention.
This week's non-farm payrolls and ADP employment data exceeded market expectations again. The hot job market seems to be telling the market one thing, that is, the United States is still far from achieving revenue. There has never been a big change since the interest rate hike, and it is even slowly declining. The market seems to be enveloped in a kind of optimism, which believes that the U.S. economy will have a soft landing this time and will not gradually change to the foreign exchange market. Is this really the case? These two graphs show the inertia of the United States and the difference between long-term and short-term bond interest rates. After comparison, it is not difficult to find that the inertia of the United States is positively related to the difference between long-term and short-term bond interest rates. Long-term interest rates are higher than short-term interest rates most of the time, except during interest rate hike cycles. It is not difficult for us to infer that during all interest rate hikes, we were unable to destock intermittently at the beginning. Until the effects of interest rate increases are notified to businesses and consumers, the economy will shrink across the board and may not necessarily rise very quickly. Unlike most other macro analysts, we believe there will definitely be candlesticks in the US next year, and this is preliminary. And when? To start cutting interest rates, we need to wait until next week's CPI data is released. I personally think that CPI will still fall. If CPI continues to fall, we can optimistically estimate that interest rates will be cut next year.
Summary: Good news! #一起来跟单
