Author: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily
On July 22, several institutions and media including 10x Research predicted that with Biden's withdrawal from the election, the current Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, is expected to resign in early 2025.
Gensler has served as SEC Chairman since April 2021. During his tenure, Gensler frequently "fired" at the cryptocurrency industry, leading cases against many well-known crypto companies such as Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, and FTX, and has repeatedly made strong regulatory remarks such as "the vast majority of tokens in the crypto market are securities, so the issuance and sale of these security-type crypto tokens will be regulated by securities laws."
It is precisely because of this that Gensler has always been regarded by the industry as the "public enemy number one" on the regulatory side. With the news that Gensler may resign early, the cryptocurrency industry has also begun to look forward to a more friendly figure at the helm of the SEC, thereby providing the industry with a more relaxed growth environment.
Will Gensler step down early?
In terms of term, Gensler's job was supposed to last until 2026, but it has long been a tradition for SEC chairmen to resign when there is a change of government.
George W. Bush appointed Christopher Cox as SEC chairman from August 2005 to January 2009, but Cox quickly resigned when Obama took office.
Obama’s choice for SEC Chair, Mary Jo White, was scheduled to serve from April 2013 to January 2017, but she also submitted her resignation in November 2016, after Trump was first elected president.
Regarding whether Gensler will leave early, Hester Peirce, one of the five SEC commissioners (also one of the hot candidates for successor, detailed below), also hinted at this possibility in an interview recently: "If the president changes, the SEC chairman usually changes as well."
Peirce, however, refrained from making any predictions about potential successors, instead stressing that the new president will have full discretion in choosing the next chair.
Considering that Biden has already withdrawn from the election, the change of ownership of the White House is a foregone conclusion, especially considering that the current Republican presidential candidate Trump is far ahead in the probability of winning the election, and Trump's running mate J.D. Vance has previously publicly criticized Gensler's work. If Trump successfully takes office, Gensler will face tremendous political pressure.
Relatively speaking, if the Democratic Party, which is currently clearly lagging behind, can successfully defend its position, Gensler's probability of continuing to perform his duties should be slightly higher. However, it is not ruled out that Harris or other presidential candidates (the Democratic Party has not yet determined the presidential candidate, but Harris is more likely) will replace Gensler, who has many enemies, in order to win over more "allies."
Who might be the successor?
As rumors circulated that Gensler might resign early, speculation about potential successors grew.
CNBC recently reported that some cryptocurrency investors have submitted several names to Trump as potential successors to Gensler, including J. Christopher Giancarlo and Heath Tarbert, two chairmen of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) during Trump's first term, Dan Gallagher, the current chief legal officer of Robinhood and a two-term SEC commissioner, and Paul Atkins, who served as an SEC commissioner in the Bush administration.
J. Christopher Giancarlo
For the "old men" in the cryptocurrency industry, the names of J. Christopher Giancarlo and Heath Tarbert may not be unfamiliar, especially Giancarlo, who was once praised by the industry as "CryptoDad".
Not only did Giancarlo himself hold a very friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies during his tenure at the CFTC, he also published a book, CryptoDad: The Fight for the Future of Money, after stepping down as CFTC chairman, telling the story of how he gave the green light for compliant Bitcoin futures during his tenure.
It is worth mentioning that after leaving office, Giancarlo also joined some companies in the industry, such as serving as a director of Paxos and chairman of the advisory board of Polymarket.
Heath Tarbert
Heath Tarbert is Giancarlo’s successor at the CFTC, and like Giancarlo, Tarbert is also a well-known cryptocurrency supporter.
During his tenure at the CFTC, Tarbert led the listing of compliant Ethereum futures and Bitcoin options products, and publicly stated that "U.S. regulation lags behind the development of cryptocurrency and blockchain" and "The concept of DeFi is revolutionary." After leaving office, Tarbert joined Circle as chief legal officer.
Dan Gallagher
Dan Gallagher is now the chief legal officer of Robinhood, which is currently one of the companies with the most cryptocurrency business in Web2. In 2022, Gallagher publicly stated: "Don't over-regulate the cryptocurrency industry because it could stifle innovation."
Gallagher is also one of the few potential successors who has responded to the issue of taking over. In a statement to CNBC, Gallagher said he was honored to be nominated as SEC chairman in the Trump administration.
Paul Atkins
Compared with the previous few people, Paul Atkins has made relatively few clear statements on cryptocurrencies, but he has also publicly criticized the SEC's excessive regulation of the cryptocurrency industry.
In an interview with CNBC about the SEC’s problems, Atkins said: “It’s a mess out there right now… I think there’s a lot of work to be done and things have to change.”
Atkins added that he had not heard from Trump and his team about what role he might take at the agency, but when asked if he would accept the SEC job if Trump wins, Atkins responded: "Who knows?"
Hester Peirce
In addition to the four people reported by CNBC, current SEC Republican Commissioner Hester Peirce is also seen as a popular candidate to succeed Gensler, at least as acting chairman after Gensler leaves.
In stark contrast to Gensler, you can think of Peirce as the cryptocurrency industry’s “best ally” on the regulatory side. In almost every regulatory development about cryptocurrencies you can remember, including ETFs, SAB-121, and multiple lawsuits, Peirce has almost always been on the side of supporting cryptocurrencies.
Peirce has also been given a friendly nickname CryptoMom by the industry due to her long-term friendly attitude towards cryptocurrency - although she recently responded: "I'm not your mother..."
Although Peirce herself did not directly respond to the possibility of taking over as chairman of the SEC, she has received support from some House forces. Representative French Hill, who is running for chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said in a recent interview: "I'm not sure about Peirce's willingness, but I think she is an excellent candidate for the SEC and she can be a good chairman."
The regulatory spring of cryptocurrency
All in all, Gensler’s early resignation seems to be a high probability event, and from the perspective of potential successors, almost all the names currently exposed by the media have a relatively friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies.
For the cryptocurrency industry, which has long been plagued by regulation, the next few years may be the most relaxed years in the industry's history - although this "honeymoon period" that is more or less related to winning votes is itself somewhat fragile.
Idealists who believe in decentralization may complain that relying on the current political environment was not what Satoshi Nakamoto intended when he wrote the Bitcoin white paper, but from a realist's perspective, the upcoming regulatory spring may be the best opportunity for all parties in the industry to seek development.
