Original author: @Web3 Mario (https://x.com/web3_mario)
During this period, I am designing and developing a very interesting social fission-related TON mini app, so the update is a little slow, please forgive me. However, I will still pay attention to current affairs. I think there is a very important and guiding event this Saturday that deserves attention. That is, Trump will give a public speech at the 2024 Nashville Bitcoin Conference. Since Trump has a high probability of becoming the next US president, the market generally believes that he will reveal more detailed policy guidelines on cryptocurrencies in this speech. Therefore, I have done some research and summary on the background of the Bitcoin Conference, as well as the market's core concerns about Trump's speech, and share them with you.
What is the Bitcoin Conference?
For those who have just entered the circle, the Bitcoin Conference may be unfamiliar and confusing, because Bitcoin is an open source protocol and there is no commercial entity responsible for it. The Bitcoin Conference looks like an official conference, so who is responsible for planning and hosting it? Therefore, let us first introduce the background of the Bitcoin Conference.
The Bitcoin Conference that Trump will attend this time refers to an annual conference on Bitcoin and related technologies and application development hosted by Bitcoin Magazine. Although some conferences with the same name have been held in previous years, the organizers are different. This is because the Bitcoin protocol is not affiliated with a certain commercial theme, but is shared by the open source community, so the naming of the conference is relatively loose.
The earliest Bitcoin Conference dates back to 2013 and was hosted by the Bitcoin Foundation, a non-profit organization that aims to promote the Bitcoin protocol. Since then, some commercial entities have hosted conferences of the same name, but their influence is not very large. It was not until 2019 that BTC Inc., to which Bitcoin Magazine belongs, began to host the annual Bitcoin Conference. The conference specifications, the influence of conference guests, the number of participants, etc. began to improve qualitatively and were gradually recognized by the crypto community. Therefore, in the current semantics, the "Bitcoin Conference" usually refers to the annual conference held by BTC Inc. since 2019.
BTC Inc. may be unfamiliar to everyone, but its Bitcoin Magazine is one of the earliest and most influential sources of Bitcoin news and information, focusing on Bitcoin and the blockchain technology and related industries behind it. The magazine was co-founded by Vitalik Buterin and Mihai Alisie in 2012. In the early days of its founding, Vitalik Buterin claimed to spend 10 to 20 hours a week writing articles, while Alisie did editing work in Romania. BTC Inc. acquired Bitcoin Magazine in early 2015 and became its actual owner and operator.
Founded in 2014, BTC Inc. is a Nashville, Tennessee-based company focused on media and technology solutions for blockchain and cryptocurrency. Its businesses include publications, conferences, and technology platforms that aim to promote the development and adoption of Bitcoin and blockchain technology. In addition to Bitcoin Magazine, its Bitcoin Media (BTC Media) is also an influential media platform in the industry. Its founder, David Bailey, is a well-known figure in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry. As one of the early cryptocurrency evangelists, he has also contributed greatly to the development of the industry.
Back to the Bitcoin Conference, since it was hosted by BTC Inc. in 2019, what are the highlights? Let me make a brief inventory and review:
1. Bitcoin 2019 (San Francisco)
Date: June 2019
Highlights: The discussion focused on the technical improvement and scalability of Bitcoin. The meeting also touched on the regulation of Bitcoin and its future development direction.
2. Bitcoin 2021 (Miami)
Time: June 2021
Highlights: This was the largest conference of its kind, attracting more than 12,000 attendees. Speakers included Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor. El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele announced plans to make Bitcoin legal tender via a video address.
3. Bitcoin 2022 (Miami)
Time: April 2022
Highlights: More than 35,000 attendees, more than 450 speakers, including well-known investors and thought leaders like Peter Thiel, Jordan Peterson, and Serena Williams. The conference also includes Sound Money Fest, which showcases Bitcoin’s impact in the arts and culture sector.
4. Bitcoin 2023 (Miami)
Time: May 2023
Highlights: The conference continued to explore Bitcoin's technical and market developments, including decentralized finance (DeFi) and Bitcoin's global adoption strategy. Participants included leaders and innovators in the cryptocurrency space.
The upcoming 2024 Bitcoin Conference will be held in Nashville, Tennessee, USA. Compared with previous conferences, the speakers at the conference are more politically oriented, especially Trump's speech. Therefore, it is generally believed by the market that there will be a lot of guidance information on future US encryption policies, so it is the focus of attention. So what are the specific points that need to be focused on? I have some of my own views to share with you.
The market generally bets that Trump will announce more favorable Bitcoin-related policy guidance information at this Bitcoin conference
The current market seems to have broken the downward haze caused by the German government's sell-off in early July and has become agitated again. The reason is that the 2024 US presidential candidate Trump suffered an assassination attempt on July 13, which established his tough image of "American Sheriff" in one fell swoop, allowing him to gain a huge advantage in the US election in November in advance. With Biden's withdrawal from the election, the new Democratic Party candidate Harris is obviously much weaker in momentum. Therefore, the market has actually digested the information that Trump will become the next US president in advance.
Considering Trump’s political propositions, the economy can basically be summarized in the following three dimensions:
* Low tax rates domestically and high tariffs externally;
* Lowering the dollar’s exchange rate against major manufacturing countries, including by cutting interest rates;
* Oppose the new energy industry and advocate boosting the traditional energy industry;
This is of course strongly related to the interest group it represents, the blue-collar class in the Rust Belt. Although isolationism and trade protection policies have obvious effects on suppressing foreign products and boosting the low-end manufacturing industry in the United States, considering the current industrial structure of the United States, it takes time to implement the above policies, and it will be accompanied by high inflationary pressure. Even Trump needs to consider how to use the hegemony of the US dollar to alleviate the above symptoms to a certain extent. Some signs indicate that it is possible to choose to achieve this goal through Bitcoin, so my primary focus is on this.
Why do I say this? First, Trump has repeatedly expressed his concerns about "US Bitcoin production capacity", for example, he advocated to ensure that the remaining Bitcoin will be produced in the United States. Considering that he has a clear favorable impression on the traditional energy industry related to oil, stimulating the energy-consuming industry of Bitcoin mining pools is a good thing for boosting oil demand and increasing industrial added value. Secondly, Trump's view on Bitcoin has changed significantly compared to his previous term. He has never recognized the value of Bitcoin, but has turned to recognizing its value as a commodity. The logic behind this is still the pricing power advantage of the US dollar. Since the main liquidity of Bitcoin is currently maintained by stablecoins anchored to the US dollar, the US dollar actually has the pricing power advantage of Bitcoin. By recognizing it as a commodity and vigorously promoting this consensus globally, it will be beneficial for US dollar capital to establish advantages in this field, thereby forming a harvesting effect.
In addition, on another point of concern, the author's view is different from the market. I think Trump will be cautious about cryptocurrencies related to security tokens. The reason is the guidance of social resources. We know that a recent market hotspot is ETH ETF, which has triggered the market's optimistic expectations for the large-scale launch of other crypto asset ETFs, such as SOL. But I think that considering the commodity attributes of such crypto assets compared to Bitcoin, they are more like shares that can obtain dividend rights, and we know that the passage of ETFs has greater symbolic significance. This represents a change in the official attitude towards the industry, and the biggest impact of this change is the guiding effect of industrial capital. This attitude may cause resource competition between the crypto industry and traditional industries. Considering that the former belongs to the virtual economy, high-tech and global characteristics, it is obviously more suitable for the Democratic Party, and contrary to Trump's economic policy propositions. Therefore, you still need to observe this point yourself.
Of course, compared to immigration policy, encryption policy is a relatively minor issue in the election. And there is no guarantee that its current attitude will remain the same for the next four years, but in the short term, the market has already begun to price in this optimistic expectation in advance, so let's wait and see.
