Crypto Twitter (CT) is a beast. After living with it for many years, I gradually understood its routine, but more importantly, I realized how it "forced" me to act with it.
Understanding something as it is, rather than what people wish it to be, is key. As far as CT is concerned, understanding its essence also means understanding the core of the game. Only in this way can we truly enter the game.
What is CT
Crypto Twitter is similar to a Rorschach inkblot test in that what you want to see becomes what you see. For Degens, it is like a casino, full of memes and various forms of shitposting; for novices, CT is full of various Alphas, and there are also many "big guys" who voluntarily share investment ideas and seem to be well-intentioned "; As for slightly more experienced investors, the situation will change subtly. They believe that CT is mostly filled with seemingly thorough and systematic investment discussions by market investment veterans and reputable venture capitalists.
However, please don’t get me wrong, all of the above impressions are just misleading results from the Rorschach test. When people take off the Rorschach "mask" of CT, its original appearance is just a chaotic "cesspool". CT contains (sometimes) cheesy market commentary and (mostly) disgusting investment endorsements. The result is a cascade of useless and harmful noise that makes it almost impossible to generate an investment signal.
Why CT is useless
There is no omniscience in the world
What evidence is there that the people on CT know everything? Indeed, some investors may have been successful in previous cycles. But in a bull market, there are always a few successful ones. Like John, the high-yield trader in Fooled by Randomness, these investors rely on luck to succeed, but they also face financial ruin.
So, what about the founders of projects that have received large amounts of venture capital? People always feel like they must know something. But think about it, why is financing so highly valued in CT? How did they raise funds? In many cases, investment institutions will rely on their past successes and expect them to succeed again and profit from it. As I just said, in most cases, their success is due to nothing but luck.
It should be emphasized that I am not advocating that all investment success depends on luck, I am just saying that all investment success is a combination of luck and skill, and it is almost impossible to distinguish between the two (on this point, Nassim Taleb has already explained it in "FBR", so I won't go into details).
There is no Alpha on CT
“Luck” and “skill” aside, is it possible for us to find Alpha on Twitter? By definition, Alpha is excess return relative to a benchmark. To achieve this, investors must understand what may happen in the future before others do. So, by definition, something found on CT cannot be Alpha. By the time so-called Alpha appears on your CT, the information has most likely already spread throughout the streets, and you may only be able to get a very small return rate while taking huge risks. Remember, every Alpha who is spoken out loud becomes a Beta.
Hanging out with "lemmings"
Even if there is some value to be found in CT, investor sentiment will fluctuate dramatically. Under such circumstances, it is also extremely difficult to maintain one's investment philosophy at all times. Maybe everyone is excited one day, but they may be all depressed the next day. Maybe you know this from the bottom of your heart, but after all, you can't escape the influence of "lemming emotions". Eventually, you too will become a "lemming" on CT.
what to do?
Investors who do not need to be told by others, who are eager to invest successfully and who deeply understand that they are in a "cesspool" with no Alpha to speak of, will take the initiative to leave CT. It's like not having to tell someone not to dart into the middle of the street. However, while this idea is particularly easy to understand, its implications may not be as simple as one might think.
From a rational perspective, it's not difficult to understand the consequences of mixing in CT. What is more difficult (and necessary) is what the individual really wants, what his true desires are.
If the inevitable result of following CT is low-quality returns, then why would people who aspire to investment success still stick to CT? The answer is that what they actually pursue is not return on investment, their real purpose is not here.
One may ask, "How can one expect a lower return on investment when a high return on investment is possible?"
Because behind obtaining low-quality returns, what they are really pursuing is something else. Some people pursue correctness and entertainment, others long for community and want to be part of a consensus. Others seek self-soothing, find an outlet for their anger, or enjoy self-pity. While the desires of people who work in CT vary, the fact is that a good pay rate may not all be their greatest desire.
In addition, another reason why CT is so popular is that people firmly believe that they "will definitely find Alpha on CT". They believe that "Although Alpha has not been found yet, it will be found in the future." This is how humans waste their lives, CT related or otherwise.
It is not wrong to pursue low rates of return, and it is not necessarily right to pursue high rates of return. Self-judgment is like a dead end, where there is no response from shoulds and shouldn’ts. Simply put, when a person begins to delve deeply into their desires, it is not because they should, but because they have recognized that what they are currently pursuing will inevitably lead to failure. And no matter how many boxes they open and how much effort they put into following CT, the result can only be failure. Because the goals are different, his arsenic can also be your honey. The so-called "arsenic" will push investors on a new journey. On this journey, they'll learn what world-class ROI truly lies in, and the answers will never be found on CT.
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions contained in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
This article is reproduced with permission from: "PANews"
Original article by Matt Gilmour, Consensys
Compiled by: Yangz, Techub News
