.Decoding ETHE and Mini Trusts: In-depth Analysis of Outflow Forecasts and Market Impact

In the field of cryptocurrency ETFs, ETHE's fee structure is similar to that of BTC ETFs. Most ETFs waive fees in the initial stage to expand the scale of asset management. However, Grayscale is unique, with an ETHE fee rate of 2.5%, far exceeding its peers. But recently, Grayscale launched a mini ETH ETF with a fee rate of only 0.25%, intending to attract fee-sensitive investors while retaining existing ETHE holders and preventing funds from flowing to low-cost competitors such as Blackrock. Faced with competitive pressure, Grayscale quickly reduced the mini trust fee rate to 15bps and successfully transferred 10% of ETHE AUM to the new product, which was seamless and tax-free.

As investors shift to mini trusts, ETHE's outflow expectations will be moderate, in stark contrast to the sharp fluctuations of GBTC. There are many different opinions in the industry about the forecast of ETF inflows, with an average valuation of about US$1 billion/month, and Standard Chartered Bank even gave an optimistic estimate of up to US$2 billion/month. With the help of Hong Kong and European ETP data and ETHE discount closing information, we can get a glimpse of the asset allocation trend of the cryptocurrency ETP market: BTC and ETH have a stable proportion, which echoes the market value ratio, while Solana is slightly over-allocated.

The key to the potential impact of ETHE outflow is to analyze its ETH supply ratio and investor behavior. Referring to the outflow pattern of GBTC, we can speculate that ETHE outflow may also have a similar impact on prices, but ETHE's NAV premium/discount phenomenon, especially its long-term trading near par value, provides investors with a valuable exit window, which may slow down the outflow rate.

Based on global cryptocurrency ETP data and ETHE's unique trading dynamics, we estimate that after the ETH ETF goes online, ETHE holders will exit at a close to par price within two months, which has become a key factor in curbing ETHE outflows. In addition, ASXN's internal estimates show potential inflows of $800 million to $1.2 billion per month, further supporting our optimistic expectations for ETH price increases. In this ETF market game, the linkage effect of ETHE and mini trust will undoubtedly bring new vitality and challenges to the cryptocurrency market. $CTK $AEVO $AKRO #美国大选如何影响加密产业？ #拜登退选