Author: Stacy Muur, Crypto Researcher; Translation: Golden Finance xiaozou
Researchers at Binance recently launched their CPT (Capital, People, Technology) framework. According to the report “What’s Driving the Crypto Market?” released by Binance Research, the main structural drivers to watch are as follows.
The framework proposed by Binance Research examines the market from three key perspectives:
Capital: Fund inflows from retail investors, venture capital, and traditional finance.
· People: Provide opportunities for individuals to actively participate and earn money.
Technology: innovation and development activities.
Part 1: Capital
New capital is essential for broad, sustainable growth in the crypto market. Without new inflows, investors must compete for returns in a zero-sum game, with some gaining and others losing out.
Metrics to watch:
Stablecoin market capitalization: Almost flat since April. (Data source: DefiLlama)
Fundraising: In the past few months, the amount of funds raised by projects has been declining. (Data source: RootData)
· Spot ETF net inflows slowed slightly: Although ETH ETF trading is expected to start next week, this has led to a slowdown in the growth of new capital. (Data source: SoSoValue)
Part 2: People
Generating sustainable returns and profits is the primary motivation for many market participants. This section focuses on the behaviors and motivations of users who actively participate in Web3.
Metrics to watch:
· Transaction volume: After the peak price in March, the transaction volume has declined. (Data source: IntoTheBlock)
personal suggestion:
BTC & ETH: Number of new addresses.
For BTC, the number of new addresses has been declining since February 2024. For ETH, the number of new addresses peaked in April/May 2024. (Data source: IntoTheBlock)
The decline in trading activity is closely tied to the fact that speculative opportunities are limited, a result of the prevalence of tokens with low circulating supply and high valuations. This market structure offers little meaningful sustainable upside to the broader market following the TGE.
Part 3: Technology
At a high level, the latest developments in Web3 are designed to attract the next billion users. This includes advancements in scaling, chain abstraction, and mass-market social and gaming applications.
However, the bulk of funding continues to flow into infrastructure, providing the underlying support for broader technologies.
Metrics to watch:
personal suggestion:
DefiLlama allows people to see the number of active developers for each project. In addition, Cryptometheus also ranks the top cryptocurrencies based on GitHub developer activity.
Upcoming Catalysts:
Spot ETH ETF approved
· Rate cuts
· The US presidential election and the Bitcoin Conference
The impact of Bitcoin halving
